Why Wynne could yet win
A formidable campaigner, Ontario’s premier is outflanking the NDP on the left and defining Patrick Brown as an opportunist
In late March, Premier Kathleen Wynne’s popularity stood an all-time low of 12 per cent. She seemed like a dead premier walking. Rumours began to swirl around Queen’s Park, speculating who could replace Wynne in advance of the looming 2018 provincial election.
That was March. Three short months later, a balanced budget, a strengthened economy and a host of major policy announcements may be helping Wynne make a comeback. A late May poll by Campaign Research suggests her Liberal Party has moved from last place, behind the Conservatives and NDP, to slightly ahead of the pack.
Popping the champagne corks is premature for the Liberals. One poll hardly heralds a trend. But it may indicate a move back up the ladder for the faltering Liberals.
Wynne’s election strategy is clear. She has decided to outflank the left-leaning NDP with a host of social and economic policy promises aimed at helping the province’s economically excluded: those who feel they have nothing to lose by voting for extremism or not at all. It’s an attempt to rebuild popularity with activist policies designed to bring greater fairness to our society.
Every day over the last three months it seemed Wynne had made another announcement — some significant, others not so much. The media coverage has been modest. However, together this array of initiative may be paving her way back to political relevance.
The Liberal promise to experiment with a basic annual income is a good example. It has been met with support from a majority of Ontarians. The project aims at providing about 4,000 people in three very different cities (Hamilton, Thunder Bay and Lindsay) with improved financial security, job prospects and quality of life.
The basic annual income will be 75 per cent of the poverty line, or $16,989 per year for single residents and $24,027 for couples. A large percentage of those who support the idea think these annual incomes should be higher to be fully effective.
Nevertheless, this experiment serves to neutralize a similar NDP pledge. It will force the New Democrats to move even further to the left into less popular socialist territory.
Wynne has made other commitments that are aimed at those struggling to succeed. They include:
• Wide-ranging improvements to employment standards, including raising the hourly minimum wage to $15 by 2019, equal pay for equal work for part time workers and increased vacation pay
• The first balanced budget since
2008, thanks to a stronger economy and higher revenues, allowing Wynne to be more aggressive with social program spending
• A $465-million plan for free pharmacare for those under 25 years of age
• Increased daycare subsidies as part of a plan to add 100,000 new daycare spaces
• Residential electricity rates to be cut 17 per cent, in addition to the current eight per cent cut
• Legislation to protect tenants from unfair rent increases and evictions, expanding rent control to all private rental units and budgeting $125 million to encourage more new rental apartment buildings
• Measures designed to cool housing prices, including a 15 per cent non-resident purchase tax
• Spending billions on rapid transit projects in major centres around the province
• A “transformation” of the province’s correctional system. Yet, Patrick Brown, the leader of the Progressive Conservative party, is being touted by many as the premier-in-waiting. He’s been consistently ahead of Wynne in popularity and his party has led the Liberals by a large margin until this latest Campaign Research poll.
Nearly 50 per cent of those who responded had no opinion of the PC leader. They knew little about him or his policies.
This seems to be Brown’s election strategy. Work hard seeking support, members and money at the local level across the province. Keep policy general until the election. In a recent TV ad he concludes by saying, “I will fight for opportunity for all.” Details to come later.
Brown knows that most governments defeat themselves. He plans to stay out of the way, avoid major mistakes (remember his predecessor, Tim Hudak) and hope this baggage-burdened, 15-year-old administration dies a natural death.
But his strategy has risks. For one, it allows the Liberals to define him with the electorate before he can fully define himself. They’ve already labelled Brown an opportunist who lacks clear values and vision, someone who will adopt any position (read a carbon tax) if he thinks it will advance his cause.
On policy, he’s tried to shed his social conservative past and move his party closer to the centre. Brown has established a bottomup policy-making process. It buys him time and allows his inner circle to eventually conjure the PC’s election platform.
Meanwhile, he complains about “reckless spending” and high hydro rates without having an answer for either issue.
The Ontario electorate is fearful of descending into the politics of Brexit and Trump, but during the election Brown will have to tell us how his Conservative plans will help our shrinking middle class and struggling working class. Wynne’s fairness policy package will likely stand up well in comparison.
Wynne has a huge hill to climb. But it would be foolish to count her out. She is a formidable campaigner who is already setting the agenda for the next election.