Why carbon pricing is losing popularity

Anew poll by Angus Reid showing support for carbon pricing — either in the form of a carbon tax or cap and trade, which is a carbon tax by another name — is falling, isn’t a surprise.

The basic rule when analyzing any poll about public attitudes towards carbon pricing is this:

If it focuses on whether Canadians favour cleaning up the environment, most people will support it.

On the other hand, if it focuses on the costs, most people will be against it. It’s not rocket science. It’s human nature. Angus Reid found, compared to its previous polls, that support for carbon taxes is falling among Canadians now that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s national carbon pricing plan is a reality.

Two years ago, when carbon pricing was just a theory, Angus Reid found Canadians supported a carbon tax by a margin of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

Today, the numbers have reversed, with 56 per cent opposing a carbon tax and 44 per cent in favour.

Similarly, 55 per cent don’t want Trudeau to proceed with his national carbon pricing plan, fearing it will put Canadian companies at a competitive disadvantage with the U.S. which doesn’t have one, while 45 per cent said Canada should proceed no matter what the U.S. does.

Given three possible choices, 43 per cent of Canadians surveyed want their provincial governments to fight the implementation of a federal carbon price compared to 19 per cent who want them to let the federal plan take effect.

Another 38 per cent want provincial governments to come up with their own carbon pricing plans.

The key thing to remember about all such polls is that their findings on carbon pricing depend on how the questions are asked.

For example, many polls surveying public attitudes toward carbon pricing contain the assumption carbon pricing will lead to lower industrial greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change.

But based on real-world experience, carbon pricing often doesn’t lower emissions, especially compared to, for example, a global economic recession, such as the one we had in 2009.

Of course, ask people if they’re in favour of a recession to lower emissions and you’ll get very different answers than if you ask whether they favour a carbon tax to fight man-made climate change.

Which is why all such polls should be taken with a grain of salt. — Postmedia News