Polling trend suggests Liberals OK
Opinion polls suggest Khadr settlement may not have hurt Trudeau government
Three separate opinion polls conducted in recent weeks by different research firms all suggest the Trudeau government hasn’t taken much of a hit for its controversial settlement with Omar Khadr.
The most recent numbers from Nanos Research, released Tuesday, show the Liberals with 39 per cent support, up slightly from their poll four weeks ago, followed by the Conservatives at 30 per cent and the NDP at 18 per cent.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the preferred choice for prime minister among 45 per cent of respondents, with Conservative leader Andrew Scheer trailing at about 21 per cent.
The Nanos numbers align with other recent polls suggesting the Liberals aren’t suffering for the Khadr settlement, news of which broke in early July. Along with a reported $10.5-million payment to Khadr, the Liberals also issued a formal apology to him for “any role Canadian officials may have played” during his 10 years in custody at the U.S. military facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Khadr was convicted of killing Sgt. Christopher Speer in Afghanistan in 2002, when he was 15. The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that Khadr’s constitutional rights were violated during his time at Guantanamo Bay.
Last week, Abacus Data released survey results showing 43 per cent of respondents would vote Liberal if an election were held today, compared to just 31 per cent who would vote Conservative and 16 per cent who would vote NDP. Support for the Liberals int hat poll was unchanged since May.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents expressed a positive view of Trudeau, up from 46 per cent in April, compared to 20 per cent who had a positive view of Scheer.
Abacus credited the state of the economy for the Liberals’ strong showing, with 68 per cent of respondents saying the economy is growing.
“What these initial numbers show is that many people are feeling better about current economic conditions and are not showing any rise in fatigue with or frustration with the federal government,” said chairman Bruce Anderson in a news release.
A third poll, released by Campaign Research on July 12, showed very similar results, with 40 per cent saying they would now vote Liberal, ahead of the Conservatives with 31 per cent and the NDP with 19 per cent. Campaign Research’s numbers have also changed little since June, when the Liberals had 39 per cent support and the Conservatives had 30 per cent.
“It appears that the Khadr controversy failed to galvanize public opinion of the prime minister and the government as some thought it might,” Campaign Research CEO Eli Yufest said in a news release.
The Liberals remain in good standing despite a recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute showing that 71 per cent of respondents believe the Trudeau government should have fought the Khadr case rather than settle. Most were more opposed to the financial compensation than to the apology.
The same poll found that 64 per cent agree that Khadr remains a “potential radicalized threat“living in Canada.
“No doubt, Canadians do not approve of the settlement he received, but their anger is not yet projected towards the prime minister,” Yufest said in his release. “As news of the Khadr settlement percolates among the electorate, it will be interesting to see if public opinion moves against the Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau.“
The Nanos findings are based on a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Abacus Data surveyed 2,036 Canadians between July 14 and 18, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Campaign Research surveyed 1,540 Canadians between July 7 and 10, with a margin of error of two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 1,521 Canadian members of an online panel between July 7 and 10, with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
OTTAWA — National Defence has been struggling to make good on one of the Trudeau government’s recent promises: Giving tax breaks to military personnel and police officers deployed on certain overseas operations.
Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan announced the measure during a major speech at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ont., in May as part of the Liberals’ new defence policy.
While Sajjan billed the move as an attempt to recognize the sacrifices that are often made by military personnel and their families, it also addressed what had been a prickly issue for the minister.
Some service members based in Kuwait had become increasingly vocal in the weeks leading up the announcement about a policy change that threatened to strip their tax-exempt status.
Yet the devil has proven to be in the details, with officials now scratching their heads over what types of operations and deployments should and should not be eligible for tax relief.
The debate is particularly relevant for the navy’s sailors, many of whom on close reading of the defence policy would not be eligible for tax relief despite spending up to six months at sea at any given time.
Sources tell The Canadian Press that the military’s senior leadership is now seized with the issue, and that defence chief Gen. Jonathan Vance has told officials he wants the issue resolved by mid-August.
Alan Okros, an expert on the management of military personnel at the Canadian Forces College, said officials are now caught trying to make good on the Liberals’ promise without making matters worse.
“They’re trying to find a solution here that will achieve what the government intended,” Okros said.
“But they don’t want to start creating precedents that would generate lawsuits or people making claims of ‘Well, if that applied there, it applies here.’”
The tax measure would see the salaries of military personnel and police officers sent on certain operations exempted from federal income tax for the duration of their deployments.
The move, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2017, exempts eligible salaries up to the pay level of lieutenant-colonel and is expected to cost the federal treasury about $85-million over the next five years.