Jays look to next season
As trade deadline nears, don’t expect Toronto to be big buyers or sellers
Thez plan was never to be this far out of a playoff spot at Major League Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline.
Of course, it was never to be among the league leaders in impactful injuries and under-achieving stars that plunged them into that rut either.
But the plan for Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins also never figured to be a top-end seller on July 31st and with that deadline now just days away, don’t expect that mindset to change significantly.
Quite simply, the Jays’ big assets are too valuable and the risk of alienating one of the burgeoning fan bases in the sport is too dear.
While there may have been a tendency to laugh off Atkins’ remarks this week firmly asserting the team’s aim to contend in 2018, we’re not sure where the joke is.
Yes, the team has struggled and has spent every day of the season with at least a share of the AL East basement. And yes, high-end prospects such as Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are still at least a couple of years away. But recognizing the assets already in hand and the financial hazards of a couple years of tanking, the Jays brass appears to favour bridgebuilding rather than demolition.
In his public comments anyway, Atkins seems to have a clear understanding of the Toronto — and Canadian — market and what is at play.
“A month ago, we were talking about the need for our team to play well and get hot,” Atkins said this week. “We didn’t have to absolutely catch fire, but we haven’t done that and now we’re in a position where … the scale of deciding whether we add or subtract has definitely changed.”
That’s a mouthful, but essentially Atkins is suggesting there won’t be a full sell-off, particularly of stars such as Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna and Josh Donaldson. And second, the team remains committed to being competitive.
Saying it and doing it are too different things, of course. But the non-waiver deadline is one of the better opportunities to acquire assets.
Though a tear down has its merits, the difficulty is that the Toronto market may not be ready to accept it in baseball as willingly as it did with the recent overhaul of the Maple Leafs.
With Rogers owning the team, the radio and TV networks that carries all of its games plus the Rogers Communications Cashbox where they play, there is no such luxury. The lucrative fan base that has been built over the past two years has been a massive corporate success story. And the fact that the Jays are indisputably Canada’s team has to factor in that business model.
“We still feel like we will have a great team in 2018, (one) that we’ll need to add to,” Atkins said. “We would hope and like for this team to remain relevant (for the rest of the 2017) and a contending team, potentially.”
Atkins acknowledged that there are long odds of the latter happening, but firmly established the target as soon next season. With that in mind, we look some of the key factors at play as time ticks towards Monday’s deadline.
No Joshin’ around
Anything can happen, but the idea of moving third baseman Josh Donaldson is far-fetched for several reasons.
Start with the fact the Jays would be losing an MVP player still in his prime and a star with the power to electrify that fan base.
As for value, because of his muted production this season, the Bringer of Rain would probably bring the least in return than at any point in his three-year tenure in Toronto.
Get rid of Donaldson (unless the incoming assets are unfathomably fantastic) and a rather loud message is delivered to both the team and its followers that a sell off is in effect.
As forgettable as 2017 has been, Donaldson remains an elite player and, at 31, should have enough good years left to bridge between the current group and whatever the new wave my resemble.
Donaldson’s season was troublesome from the start when he was hobbled by a calf injury in Dunedin, severely limiting his Grapefruit League at bats.
When the team got off to its miserable start, those struggles accelerated with a trip to the disabled list. He’s yet to gather serious momentum, but to write him off at this point would be foolhardy.
There have been glimpses of late that Donaldson is turning the corner at the plate. Given the dubious future of Jose Bautista with the team, Donaldson should remain as the cornerstone of the present and what management hopes will be a contender in the not-too-distant future.
Who to move?
The logical candidates have been out there for weeks — Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. All three are pitchers with expiring contracts and to varying degrees offer value to a contender.
Liriano seems to be garnering the most attention, the belief being
What about Smoak?
As disciples of the sell-high movement, any general manager would recognize the value of moving first baseman Justin Smoak in this his breakthrough season.
If Atkins and Shapiro believe that at age 30 he has finally realized his potential, they won’t think of moving him, however. Smoak’s production has easily replaced that of Edwin Encarnacion and his defensive prowess at first is vastly underrated.
If, however, management believes regression is probable and they are met with an offer too good to resist, the time might be right.
Smoak, left-handed starter J.A. Happ and utility fielder Steve Pearce are all in the same situation in that they are under contract through 2018. But lefties are hard to come by and Pearce
What about this week?
The four-game sweep of the Athletics showed us a few things, even with the asterisk that it was against one of the American League’s truly awful teams.
As bloated as the odds to make the playoffs may be, there’s still a chance that the Jays play some meaningful baseball in September which would help keep ratings afloat and possibly encourage some off-season ticket sales for 2018.
After that disastrous 3-7 road trip through Detroit, Boston and Cleveland, however, management’s tone changed notably. A month ago, Atkins said the team would be a buyer at the deadline. A few days ago, it was acknowledged that such shopping will not involve dipping into the rental market. A sweep over the A’s won’t divert that strategy.