As Alberta rebounds, so could Notley’s NDP

Two Alberta conservative parties have merged. A leadership race is underway. It’s all propelled by one premise — the NDP must be defeated, or Alberta’s economy will be ruined.

Jason Kenney is likely to repeat the mantra of doom Saturday when he launches his campaign for the United Conservative leadership.

He paints the NDP as the job destroyer, the cause of the recession, the tax-raising, minimum-wage-hiking force whose blind ideology will cause irreparable damage.

But what if the economy itself proves that isn’t true? What if activity rebounds, jobs return, new businesses open, and the NDP manages to restrain spending while bringing down the debt?

The conservative case would lose force. Irritants that seem powerful could look minor by election year, 2019. The NDP could win again.

The recovery is already here. It’s not powerful, but it’s building. By 2019, the economic and political landscape could look very different.

Remarkably, Alberta is expected once again to lead Canada in growth.

A Bloomberg survey of economists says GDP growth will be 2.9 per cent in 2017, level with B.C. for top spot in Canada. Next year, the province is expected to outstrip all others with 2.4 per cent growth.

Most forecasters now agree Alberta will inch back to national leadership.

This news is almost as important psychologically as economically. The province’s GDP fell by 3.6 per cent in 2015 and 3.5 per cent in 2016. The job losses were sudden and extreme.

Recovery this year is essential to preserve any sense of optimism and resilience. But that’s not necessarily the best thing for UCP momentum.

“My frustration is that you’ve got the opposition, or the two people vying for leader of the opposition (Kenney and Brian Jean), who are continually cheering for Alberta to fail,” says Economic Development Minister Deron Bilous.

“When good news come out, whether it’s pipeline approvals, or from organizations (like Bloomberg), their comments are always discouraging investor confidence or investing. They’re cheering against the province.”

It’s never been reasonable to claim the NDP caused the recession. The key anti-government argument has been that NDP policies made the recession deeper and recovery slower.

But the damage is hard to quantify. If the economy bounces back, it may be irrelevant anyway.

Central Calgary was the blast zone of the provincial recession. It’s hardly surprising that anti-NDP feeling runs deeper here than in Edmonton or other urban areas. That’s why Premier Rachel Notley and her MLAs were everywhere during Stampede.

A stockbroker told me the tower where he works is half vacant. The parking lot is rarely more than onethird full. Many satellite businesses around the energy offices have shut down.

But some of the old Calgary bounce is back. Even as businesses close, others open, or expand.

Peter Fraiberg, owner of Gruman’s Catering and Delicatessen, had a terrible time after the recession.

His business depended largely on catering to energy company meetings and dinners. The clients either disappeared or held smaller events, Fraiberg told me.

But Fraiberg finds a way to succeed. He adjusted without sacrificing quality. His catering is now as busy as ever, although on a smaller scale.

And he’s expanding. A satellite Grumans will soon open.

“Life goes on and I gotta move on,” Fraiberg said. “This is what I do, so I have to think hard all the time, work smart and be here, be with my staff, make sure that everybody leaves our places with a smile on their face.”

Alberta is reviving, and the political landscape could change with it.