Guessing GO’s development impact
I don’t envy local experts tasked with forecasting 25 years into the future.
Egads, man, think of the crazy predictions required from 1992 to have got things right today.
A new hospital and cancer treatment centre on the western outskirts of the city; old factories in Merritton being refashioned into trendy eateries; massive condo proposals for Port Dalhousie; Andy Petrowski being elected to Niagara regional council — twice!
See, it’s a bit of a fool’s game. Still, these long-term guessing exercises are what planners engage in.
Thus, in St. Catharines we have an attempt to envision what the area around the Western Hill train station will look like in 2041, a reading of the tea leaves prompted by the pending arrival of daily GO train service to Niagara.
Some predictions, though, are easier than others.
For instance, some time in the not-too distant future the St. Paul Street West humpback bridge over the Canadian National Railway tracks will be replaced.
Niagara Region is set to launch later this fall an environmental assessment of that section of St. Paul Street West, with the bridge replacement being a primary focus.
It is almost certain a new bridge will result in Great Western Street — the existing access point to the train station — no longer connecting to St. Paul Street West.
This means, of course, another access/egress point must be found. The thinking at this stage is the new entrance will be off Ridley Road near Louth Street.
In that scenario, Ridley Road would be realigned to connect with Louth Street at a slightly northerly point.
Also in the cards is a grade separation at one of the rail crossings near the train station.
The Region’s recently completed transportation plan states that in 2020-21: “Niagara Region, working closely with the City of St. Catharines, Metrolinx and CN Rail [will] undertake an Environmental Assessment Study to identify need, opportunity, functional design, implementation and costs associated with a CN grade separation at one of three possible locations (Third Street, Vansickle Road or Louth Street).”
Presumably, some co-ordination will be required for all of the above stuff.
But the work will get done because local governments overseeing the project can and will find the tax dollars to do it.
Much more difficult to predict is whether the area surrounding the train station will experience higherdensity residential and commercial activity.
Municipal planners are forecasting this sort of development. But ultimately the private sector will determine whether there is a market for such growth.
To be clear, the city is not talking about intensifying development in the immediate neighbourhood, which is an older, established residential area.
Rather, the preliminary plan, outlined at city council Monday night, calls for increased activity along St. Paul Street West, the corner of Louth and Ridley, and, curiously, “longerterm opportunities for infilling and intensification of lower-density strip plazas along Fourth Avenue.”
It’s anticipated the increased development will result in an additional 1,900 people and 2,300 jobs in the area by 2041.
Really? Hmm …
Maybe this is what they call a “stretch” goal.
As noted, this rather optimistic growth is predicated on the local populace going ga-ga for GO.
An attempt by the province in 2011 to forecast long-term GO train numbers painted a less-stellar picture.
The Niagara Rail Service Expansion Study estimated 250 people from the St. Catharines train station would make the daily morning commute towards Toronto by 2031.
That doesn’t strike me as an overwhelming amount. Mind you, it’s a glorified guess. As is the city’s population and job forecast.
But we’re in this for the long haul.
I’m sure by 2041 Niagara regional chairman Petrowski will have made the numbers work.