World’s fate hinges on pair of unhinged leaders

For the first time in a long time, the unthinkable threat of nuclear first strike is emerging as a dominant cultural theme. It’s popping up everywhere from editorial cartoons to private prayer.

For decades, the threat of mutually assured destruction provided a certain equilibrium. That precarious balance now hinges on the actions of two men who appear unhinged.

The Nobel laureates at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists would seem to agree. Since 1947, they have analyzed the greatest threats to civilization, symbolically recorded on the doomsday clock. Last year, just days after the U.S. presidential inauguration, they reset the clock at 2½ minutes to midnight.

In a statement, the scientists described factors in their decision, including “a rise in strident nationalism worldwide, President Donald Trump’s comments on nuclear arms and climate issues . . . and a growing disregard for scientific expertise,” leaving no room for misinterpretation.

Theoretical physicist Lawrence M. Krauss added: “This is the first time the words and stated policies of one or two people placed in high positions have so impacted” the threat assessment.

Reporting on changes to the doomsday clock in recent years has focused on the ascendancy of climate change as a metric for human extinction. But a more imminent threat has become apparent, as 7.5 billion hostages bear witness to an escalating war of words unchecked by diplomacy or self-restraint.

The furious rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S. has shot back and forth like a pinball, gaining momentum with each rebound. It pings from “fire and fury” to “rocket man” to “dotard.” With no replay on the board, the U.S. president threatens to “totally destroy” North Korea, a nation of 25-million people. Ping, North Korean officials shoot back, the president’s statements are a “declaration of war.”

The provocative language breaks diplomatic norms, as do the platforms of their exchanges, which range from formal addresses at the United Nations to impromptu rantings on Twitter. The possibility of accidental war has moved from punchline to reasonable grounds for anxiety.

Only once has the doomsday threat level been higher. In 1953, the doomsday clock reached two minutes to midnight after the U.S. and Soviets conducted hydrogen bomb testing.

The rhetoric of the era helped keep the clock at two minutes for seven years. There was certainly no easing of tensions in 1956, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev addressed western ambassadors at an embassy in Moscow. “Like it or not,” he relayed through interpreter Viktor Sukhodrev, “we are on the right side of history. We will bury you.”

Those four words echoed around the globe as a menacing threat. Khrushchev’s literal statement was somewhat less inflammatory — “We will dig you in” — suggesting communism would prevail over capitalism. The leader later clarified: “Of course, we will not bury you with a shovel. Your own working class will bury you.”

Sukhodrev always insisted he translated the statement faithfully and the words were taken out of context. The interpreter’s career spanned five Soviet leaders and seven American presidents. He could translate Russian into English using an American or British accent as the circumstance required. He described Khrushchev as one of the most difficult leaders to translate; his speeches were peppered with folksy sayings and jokes, and he often went off-script.

One must wonder what Sukhodrev would have made of “covfefe.”

In a high-stakes standoff with players famous for hyperbole, clarity and composure have never been more important. In the parlance of pinball, this is a one-ball game. Playing to midnight is not how you win. write.robin@baranyai.ca