South Africa poised between despair, delight

“We have three gangsters, one suspect and a president who is prisoner of a Top Six that is clearly compromised,” said Zackie Achmat, AIDS activist and Nobel Prize nominee, on hearing that Cyril Ramaphosa, a former trade union leader and businessman, had been elected president of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC).

It’s hard to celebrate when another billionaire wins an election, but thoughtful people in South Africa are at least relieved: it could have been worse. It could have been Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, ex-wife of President Jacob Zuma, a profoundly corrupt man who has allowed, even encouraged, corruption to spread through the higher ranks of the ANC.

There’s no evidence that NDZ is corrupt herself, but it was widely believed that if she won power she would protect her former husband, who is otherwise likely to go to jail after he leaves the presidency. He faces 18 charges of corruption, fraud, racketeering, money laundering and tax evasion relating to 783 payments.

In October the Supreme Court of Appeal reinstated the charges, which Zuma has repeatedly used his presidential powers to suppress or postpone. His former financial adviser, who went to jail for making those payments, says he will testify against Zuma if necessary.

Zuma was counting on NDZ to protect him, and most of the ANC bigwigs who joined him in plundering the economy backed her presidency bid. But Ramaphosa outmanoeuvred her, and on Tuesday was narrowly elected president of the ANC.

He’s not yet running South Africa, but in the 23 years since apartheid ended, the ANC’s president has become the country’s president as well. Zuma can technically stay in power until the next scheduled elections in 2019, but last time the ANC’s president changed, the party immediately “recalled” the sitting president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, and put in the new man, Zuma. That may happen again.

If Ramaphosa becomes president of the whole country, there are high hopes the corruption and constant subversion of the law will stop, or at least shrink. Billionaires don’t need to steal. And if investors believe Ramaphosa is honest and competent, then the economy may manage more than one per cent growth.

It’s been a long time since South Africa has seen any real economic growth. But it’s far from guaranteed, because Ramaphosa has been lumbered with a “Top Six” in the National Executive Committee (NEC) — a kind of cabinet — at least half of whom backed Dlamini-Zuma.

Two of them, David Mabuza, now deputy president of the NEC, and Ace Magashule, now secretary-general, are definitely “gangsters.” They have ruled two provinces, Mpumalanga and the Free State, for a long time; they are both rich and have close ties to the Guptas, a mega-rich family of influential Indian immigrants.

It’s less clear whom Achmat thinks the third “gangster” is, but it could be Jessie Duarte, now Magashule’s deputy. She also has ties to the Guptas, and vigorously defends Zuma’s action at every opportunity.

All three were elected by the leadership conference, and Ramaphosa can’t fire them.

Zuma will likely have another year to feather his nest and undermine the judiciary and the police before the 2019 election. Even after that, it’s questionable how effectively Ramaphosa can clean up the party.

As a lifelong ANC member said to me: “If you had told me in 1984 (in the depths of apartheid) what South Africa would be like now, I would have been delighted. If you had told me in 1994 (the country’s first free election), I would’ve been in despair.”

The right attitude, of course, is somewhere in between.

— Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.