Never a dull moment with Trump as our neighbour

Trump has real and imagined problems with both Canada and Mexico. For example, he has insisted Canada has a trade imbalance that hurts the U.S., when the reality is the U.S. has a trade surplus

First Donald Trump imposes unjustifiable tariff penalties on Canadian steel and aluminum. Then he announces he wants to end the North American Free Trade Agreement and negotiate separate deals with Canada and Mexico.

As the proverb says, may you live in interesting times. Many think that’s a complimentary wish, but it’s actually a curse you might hurl at an enemy. You could paraphrase it this way: May you live on shifting sands.

In that context then, Canada really is living a proverb. And it doesn’t promise to be pleasant.

Trump’s trade gurus don’t acknowledge separate deals would end NAFTA, presumably because they don’t want to leave the impression Trump is dumping it. But if there are bilateral deals as opposed to a threeway deal, it’s no longer continental. It’s not NAFTA, it’s something different.

Canadian and Mexican trade officials don’t like the idea. It means the two countries lose whatever strength comes from a united front. Together they can share the pain, and possibly have more impact on influencing Washington. Separately they’re on their own.

Separate agreements would also mean the death of the spirit of NAFTA, the idea that continental neighbours should be able to share both strengths and challenges in trade and free movement of goods across continental borders.

But for all that, this may be an idea whose time has come. Trump has said all along he prefers bilateral to multilateral. Basically, he says, they’re simpler.

This isn’t about Trump being some master, shrewd negotiator. By virtue of where he sits and the influential economy he oversees, he holds most of the cards. He’s like a poker player who comes into every hand holding a straight flush — before the betting starts he’s already in a position of great strength.

This development poses new and special challenges for the Trudeau government, which has to date done a commendable job of trying to negotiate with an erratic and sometimes irrational administration.

But now what? Trump has real and imagined problems with both Canada and Mexico. For example, he has insisted Canada has a trade imbalance that hurts the U.S., when the reality is the U.S. has a trade surplus and Canada has a trade deficit.

One thing is inarguable: Trump’s issues with Mexico are quite different than the ones he has with Canada. What if there’s a better deal for Canada if it deals with the U.S. only and leaves Mexico to fend for itself ?

What if Trump is prepared to pull back those unfair trade sanctions that threaten the viability of Canadian steel and aluminum producers if he gets to negotiate a separate trade deal with this country?

In the eyes of many experts, when Trump applied those tariffs, he put Canada in an untenable position — knuckle under or say goodbye to NAFTA. Much as the Trudeau government believes in the value of the agreement, it will have to do the right thing for the nation now and going forward, and that might mean a separate trade deal, without Mexico.