Let the chaos of Brexit be a warning to the world

The United Kingdom has dug itself into a Brexit hole it might not be able to get out of.

In a referendum two years ago, the slimmest majority of British voters — 51.9 per cent — rashly chose to pull their country out of the European Union in a decision that, early on at least, seemed like a feisty declaration of independence.

But the Brexit vote that was meant to make the U.K. stronger, more united and more confident has left it weaker, more divided and confused than it has been in generations.

The declaration of independence has given way to a declaration of despair.

This week, British Prime Minister Theresa May saw her rather modest Brexit proposal — the so-called Chequers agreement — hit a brick wall of opposition within her own Conservative Party. And dancing on top of that wall were three of her most prominent cabinet ministers who had resigned to signal their disapproval of May’s plan.

Today, May is holding onto the prime minister’s office by her fingernails. It’s possible her own party might oust her and that another national election might follow.

Far worse for her country, the fate of May’s plan to keep a truly sovereign Britain within the European market, is up in the air.

Her own Conservatives might reject it. Even if they don’t there are ominous signals from the EU that May’s plan is a non-starter.

Of course, in the heady days of the Brexit vote, that razor-thin majority of leavers thought it would be so easy. The British lion would roar. Europe would step into line.

But facing the possibility that voters in France or Italy might be emboldened by a Brexit deal that favours the U.K. and rush for the exit doors themselves, the European Union is playing hardball with the British. It doesn’t want Britain to have the benefits of being an EU member without obeying strict membership rules.

Charting a workable Brexit path was always going to be difficult. While the government is supposed to respect the democratic decision made in the Brexit referendum, there’s no way of knowing what those who wanted to leave the EU really voted for.

The fight within the ruling Conservative Party, the British Parliament and the U.K. itself is between two, mutually exclusive visions for Brexit. The soft-Brexit, which May champions, would allow Britain to retain close trade links with Europe while regaining more autonomy, especially control over its own border and who is allowed in.

In contrast, the hard-Brexit would lead to a more extreme break that would make the U.K. its own master and free it from the decisions made by the European Parliament.

The unsettled Brexit crisis has thrown a wrench into Britain’s economic works. Economic growth has slowed. The union itself is more fragile because most voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland wanted to remain in the EU and feel betrayed by the English majority that wanted out.

Recent polls show that if most U.K. voters had to do it over again, they’d vote to stick with the EU. Yet this week, it doesn’t look like Britain can go back. And it seems next to impossible for it to move forward.

Beyond the shock waves it continues to send through Britain, the Brexit vote should serve as a cautionary tale in a world where the widespread rise of populism and nationalism threatens the international order that was painstakingly built after the Second World War and has succeeded so well.

Be careful what you wish — and vote for.