Aiming to avoid another lockdown
Ford government not explaining critical pandemic decision-making
Just as it is not entirely clear how the provincial government decided Niagara was ready for the next phase of economic reopening, how it would determine if the region ever has to take a step back to COVID-19 lockdown is equally opaque.
Niagara’s acting medical officer of health said Queen’s Park will monitor the region’s progress as commercial activity starts to resume today. If the number of COVID-19 cases “gets out of control,” it could reimpose restrictions that have limited spread of the potentially deadly novel coronavirus.
However, Dr. Mustafa Hirji said he does not know how the province will determine if a return to lockdown is necessary.
“I have no more insight into that than we did into how they decided who is moving onto Phase 2,” Hirji said Thursday, on the eve of many Niagara businesses reopening.
During Thursday’s virtual state of the region event, Hirji pointed to four public health indicators the provincial government has said it is using to determine if a region is ready to move forward into the next phase of reopening, or if it needs to take a step backwards.
These four indicators — virus spread, public health capacity, health-care capacity and incident tracking — only appear as logos in the official Stage 2 document published by Ontario’s Ministry of Health.
The graphic includes a hyperlink to an “accessible description chart” which links to a list of regions currently in Stage 2.
It provides no further information about health indicators.
The St. Catharines Standard asked the ministry how it measures those indicators, how they are weighed against each other and how they are used in decision making.
A ministry spokesperson would not provide that information this week nor answer followup questions.
Hirji is watching local data, including the number of new cases daily, particularly those cases for which the source of infection is not known.
“Those cases could indicate an
increased spread of the virus,” he said.
There were four new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Niagara Thursday, bringing the historical total to 733. One older case was removed from Niagara’s official tally because public health investigators determined it involved someone from outside Niagara.
Of the new cases, two are still under investigation. One has an unknown source of infection and the last is connected to that case.
At least 61 Niagara residents infected with the virus have died.
Hirji actively lobbied Ontario’s chief medical officer of health to move Niagara into Stage 2, citing the region’s low daily case count and the end of most local health-care outbreaks as evidence Niagara was ready.
There is other data in Niagara’s favour, Hirji said. Although testing numbers have expanded in recent weeks, the percentage of positive tests has not risen, indicating the limited reach of the coronavirus at present. There are only two people being treated for COVID-19 in Niagara, meaning St. Catharines hospital has capacity to handle more cases should they arise.
And there hasn’t been a COVID-19 related death reported since June 5.
All 34 of Ontario’s public health units proposed the health indicators be used to track each region’s progress and be used to establish a data-based system to decide if a region can move forward or take a step backwards.
Although the provincial government has given no indication it will publish health indicator metrics if it is tracking them, Hirji said the public health unit will.
He said his department is creating an online COVID-19 dashboard that will soon be part of the Niagara Region website.