Thousands of homes needed to resolve ‘wicked problem’
Niagara will need more than 67,000 more homes by 2041, Brock report says
Niagara will need more than 67,000 more homes by 2041 to meet the needs of its growing population, according to Brock University research studying the “wicked problem” of affordable housing in the region.
A new policy brief published last week by Brock’s Niagara Community Observatory looked into the region’s demand for housing and the growing waiting list for homes people can afford.
The report, called “Looking Ahead and Looking Up: Affordable Housing in Niagara,” written by Brock assistant political science professor Joanne Heritz, describes the issue as the “wicked problem.”
The report, available on the university’s website, said it’s the result of a combination of several factors, including landlords realizing their property can generate more income as short-term accommodations rath
er than as rental units, the “renovictions” of tenants who can no longer afford the cost of their apartments when renovations are complete, people working in part-time or tempo
rary employment, as well as the combination of the housing shortage, higher rents, a growing population
expected to exceed 609,900 by 2041 — up from the current 450,000 — as well as the prevalence of low-income jobs in the region.
Members of the Indigenous community, women, seniors and veterans are among the hardest hit segment of the population, the report said.
A 2018 survey of Niagara’s homeless population showed 24.3 per cent of respondents identified as being Indigenous.
Meanwhile, the waiting list for an affordable single-bedroom apartment in Niagara Falls is now up to 17 years long, and it has grown by about 20 per cent between 2017 and 2019.
“I’m telling the community that we don’t have enough housing, especially affordable housing, our demand is going to go up, and we need to build more apartment-type housing,” Heritz said, in a media release.
Her report said St. Catharines, where the average price to rent a one-bedroom apartment was $910 last year, was rated in the Niagara Region Housing and Homelessness Action Plan as the 10th most expensive rental market in Canada.
Affordable apartments are in highest demand in the region. It is estimated Niagara will need 19,325 more apartments by 2041. That’s about 870 units pear year for the next two decades.
The report said the region will also need 21,491 single-detached homes, 6,556 semi-detached and 19,325 row housing units.
The document acknowledged efforts underway throughout the region to meet the anticipated demand, such as recent projects by Niagara Regional Housing in Welland and St. Catharines, as well as plans for a 73-unit project in Niagara Falls.
Other agencies such as Bethlehem Housing and Support Services and YWCA are working on affordable housing projects, too.
“Despite the growing number of new affordable housing builds in Niagara, population forecasts indicate housing demand will continue for the next 20 years, especially for singleperson units, not only in Niagara Falls, St. Catharines and Welland, but across the region,” the report said.
“Provincial plans to address significant population increases include increasing density along major corridors in all municipalities, so we will see more highrise apartments designed for single occupants across the region. Provincially mandated changes to allow secondary suites and ancillary buildings on single dwellings have been implemented in some municipalities and are awaiting rezoning bylaws in other municipalities.”