Can Tellez carry over his production from 2020?
The Blue Jays know they need to add at least one infielder this off-season, either at third base or up the middle. What’s less clear is whether they will look to acquire a first baseman/designated hitter type as well.
Toronto’s off-season shopping for a slugger on the right side of the infield likely comes down to how much faith the organization has in Rowdy Tellez. The 25-year-old had to win a job in summer camp, and after a strong abbreviated season, it remains to be seen if he will be forced to take similar steps next year.
Tellez, who had appeared in parts of three seasons with the Jays, was once considered the future at first base. That’s no longer the case after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moved across the diamond, but the front office still feels Tellez has a shot at being part of the present core.
“He really made a lot of progress in season with just using the whole field,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said recently.
“Thinking about how to maximize his power, he has such a good swing. He has the potential to be such a pure hitter because of his athleticism and his hand-eye ability. He has shown incredible plate discipline at times, as well.”
Tellez has been a difficult player to figure out for much of his career. He burst onto the scene in 2016 with a breakout season for double-a New Hampshire, where the California native slugged 23 homers with 81 RBIS while posting a .917 OPS. His stock then dropped after repeated shortcomings at triple-a Buffalo, where over parts of three seasons he posted an underwhelming .737 OPS.
There were flashes of power but far too much swing and miss with a tendency to expand the zone. He performed well as a September call-up in 2018 but struggled the following year, with a slash line of slashing .227/.293/.449 in 111 games. That led to Tellez arriving in camp this year without any guarantees.
Tellez ended up winning a job and he performed as well as could have been expected. The sample size was small but a .346 on-base percentage and 139 OPS+ are the kinds of numbers the Jays want to see from the burly lefty. By comparison, Travis Shaw, who was initially signed to fill a similar role to Tellez, posted a .306 on-base percentage with a 95 OPS+ while earning nearly $3.5 million (U.S.) more.
Improved plate discipline is part of the reason for Tellez’s improved numbers. The former 30th-round pick likely will always be known as a free swinger but, in 2020, he swung at two per cent fewer pitches outside the zone compared to the year before. His swing rate inside the zone jumped by five per cent and his total contact improved by more than eight per cent.
The bigger reason behind the turnaround, though, was Tellez’s production on offspeed pitches.
In 2019, Tellez hit .139 with a .359 slugging percentage on breaking balls. This year, those numbers jumped to a .281 average and .500 slugging percentage. Over time, opposing pitchers were discovering Tellez was no longer an easy out by just burying an off-speed pitch in the dirt and getting him to chase.
The big unknown is whether the adjustments will carry over into next season, or whether they will regress to the mean over the course of a full season. The Jays sound as if they are prepared to give Tellez another shot unless a move presents itself that is just too good to pass up.
“It’s not as simple as are we going to add a first baseman or not,” Atkins said. “It really depends on the rest of our work. But I can say this, that’s not going to be a priority for us, adding someone at that position.”
The free-agent market is weak at Tellez’s position. A full-time designated hitter such as Minnesota’s Nelson Cruz likely doesn’t make sense on a team that needs to have someone who can split time with Guerrero at first base.
And the group of free-agent first basemen isn’t very enticing. There are veterans like Mitch Moreland and Marwin Gonzalez, and others such as Carlos Santana and Eric Thames with club options, but not a lot of impact bats.
Add everything up and, barring an unexpected trade for a big piece, Tellez seems like a safe bet to return as a member of the starting lineup. How long he stays there will depend on his performance.