Infection rate falls, but deaths soaring
A Niagara resident is dying on average every 3.5 hours
For the past five days, a Niagara resident with COVID-19 has died, on average, every 3.5 hours.
Following Niagara’s deadliest pandemic weekend that saw at least 22 people with the virus die in a 48-hour span, the local COVID-19 death rate slowed down but continued to march on. At least 35 people have died since Saturday, pushing Niagara’s pandemic total to 289 people.
That is more than the 215 St. Catharines residents killed during the four years of the Second World War.
The region has seen COVID-19 deaths increase every day since Jan. 9, when that total was 186 people.
Niagara acting medical officer of health Dr. Mustafa Hirji has said even though the region’s novel coronavirus infection rate appears to be slowing down, deaths are likely to continue to increase for some time given the number of vulnerable people who have been infected in the past several weeks.
Hirji’s public health department began vaccinating longterm-care residents with the first of the two-dose Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on Jan 13. Clinical trials show the vaccine created a significant immune response about 10 days after the first shot.
Hirji said that level of immunity — while less than the full protection achieved after the
second dose, which is administered 21 to 27 days after the first shot — is already providing a degree of protection. Based on national vaccination models, Hirji said the vaccine may have already saved as many as 25 local lives.
While the death total approaches 300 people, the overall infection rate continued the apparent decline that began last week. The 104 new cases confirmed Wednesday is in line with the new average of about 100, down from 120 or more in the preceding weeks.
Other key metrics also point to a possible declining infection rate. The rate of positive tests, cases per 100,000 and the local reproduction rate — the number of people a single infected person can make sick — have all declined since last week.
Two of those metrics, the test rate and cases per 100,000, still remain above the provincial red restriction zone thresholds.
Hirji said if residents continue to follow infection control safety measures — stay at home, wear a mask, physically distance and wash hands — Niagara could push the local infection rate down to a more manageable, less dangerous level. However, residents should expect to be living with restrictions for the next several weeks.
A significant unknown factor is whether the more contagious COVID-19 variants have reached Niagara.
COVID-19 B.1.17, the so-called “U.K. variant” has been found in Simcoe-muskoka, but there is no evidence yet it has infected Niagarans.
“I would not say it is inevitable it is here,” said Hirji in a Tuesday interview. “It could be the stay-at-home order and shutdown has prevented it from travelling widely and into Niagara.”
Hirji said the provincial labs are reviewing all confirmed COVID -19 cases from Jan. 20 to attempt to establish a baseline for the variant in Ontario.
While the variant appears to be no more lethal than the standard novel coronavirus, it does spread more easily. Hirji said if it arrives in Niagara, given the region’s high degree of community spread of COVID-19, it could push the local infection rate back in the wrong direction.
“It could complicate things because it could lead to more spread,” he said. “It would also make outbreaks harder to manage.”
Outbreaks in Niagara, which were increasingly steadily for weeks, have levelled off recently at about 50. Hirji said there are increasingly fewer cases linked to COVID-19 outbreaks in longterm-care homes due to safety measures and vaccinations kicking in. Workplace outbreaks, however, remain a driving factor of new cases in Niagara.