Chamber welcomes reopening; Hirji says it’s risky
Medical officer of health says new variants could be imported from GTA
It is a “very risky time” for Niagara to reopen its economy, says the region’s top public health official, given a high COVID-19 infection rate along with the threat of GTA visitors bringing new, more infectious virus variants with them.
Dr. Mustafa Hirji said it is not clear what colour-coded level of reopening Niagara will find itself in next week — current data points to the grey, lockdown zone — but noted provincial plans failed to keep COVID-19 at bay prior to the current lockdown.
“I keep returning to the U.K. example,” Hirji said Monday after Premier Doug Ford announced his reopening plan. “They did a four-week lockdown, then reopened when cases were still relatively high and then, after two weeks, had to immediately shut down everything again.
“We should learn from that lesson.”
On Monday, Ford announced Ontario would start to return to its colour-coded system of restrictions. Save for a few northern regions with low COVID-19 case counts, the rest of the province, including Niagara, will remain in its current lockdown until Tuesday, Feb. 16. At that point, the province will move those regions into the green, yellow, red or grey zones depending on their pandemic data.
Only the COVID-19 “hot spots” of Toronto, Peel and York will remain in the current state of lockdown until Feb. 22.
Although Niagara’s infection and death rates are among the province’s worst — on par or worse than communities such as Toronto and Peel — the province does not consider it to be a hot spot.
Niagara’s infection rate is falling, but it remains well above what it is was in the spring when the first reopening began. The numbers are now where they were when the second wave started gaining steam, Hirji said, and could turn around rapidly, particularly if virus variants arrive in the region.
Mishka Balsom, chief executive officer of Greater Niagara Chamber of Commerce, welcomed Monday’s reopening news.
“We need to look at it, but it needs to be a framework that is being done gradually, so that we can measure it and see the impact,” she said.
Balsom said Monday’s return to schools and next week’s reopening of non-essential retail businesses will allow the province to determine their impact on case numbers.
She noted the province announced it will hit the “emergency brake” to lock down a region if cases spike.
Hirji is not sure how that brake will work. The province said a rapid decision would be made in consultation with local medical officers of health.
But to date, Niagara has had little success with Queen’s Park. In early December, as the second wave was getting out of control, Hirji and local hospital leaders asked the province to move Niagara into the red zone to try to head off the worst outcomes.
The province didn’t listen.
Subsequently, 260 Niagara residents with the virus have died. In total, at least 347 Niagarans have died since the pandemic began.
Balsom is pleased the province is allowing non-essential retailers to open, something the chamber has advocated for.
“It’s good that more businesses are allowed to safely reopen and get people back to work. I think it’s critical to our economic recovery,” Balsom said.
Hirji, however, said there are known risks the provincial framework may not be accounting for.
The more infectious COVID variants have been found in the GTA, he said, and if Niagara starts to reopen while those cities remain closed, the region could find itself importing variants from visitors, which could then trigger a third wave and a return to lockdown.
“We have an opportunity to really suppress those variants before they become a problem for us,” Hirji said.
Depending on how the pandemic evolves, Hirji said he may consider following the path of his counterparts in Toronto and Peel and use his authority to impose restrictions on Niagara beyond the provincial framework.
He had previously done so by placing limits on restaurants. Those measures will remain in place regardless of what zone Niagara is placed in next week.
Balsom said business owners still have more questions than answers, particular for non-retail sectors.
Given that so much goes into reopening a business — from supply chains to recalling staff — businesses want more clarity from about how the pandemic impacts opening and closings, and how the data impacts those decisions.
“It’s something that is not as easy as turning a switch,” she said. Grant Lafleche is a St. Catharinesbased investigative reporter with the Standard. Reach him via email: grant.lafleche@niagaradailies.com Karena Walter is a St. Catharinesbased reporter, primarily covering city hall for the Standard. Reach her via email: karena.walter@niagaradailies.com