Reopening plan must strike a delicate balance

Is the Ford government reopening Ontario too quickly? That is the main question on many minds today in wake of news Monday that the province will gradually begin reopening various regions, sooner where COVID-19 is less prevalent, later where it is more so.

Here is one big concern. Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, has said he wants to see daily cases drop below 1,000 and the number of COVID patients in hospital intensive care units drop below 150 before lifting lockdown.

The very same day the government announced phased reopening, Ontario reported 1,265 new cases (and 33 new deaths) and there were 334 people (226 of them on ventilators) in ICUS. So we are not yet at the benchmarks identified by the province’s top public health expert, and yet we are starting to reopen. Should we be worried?

The answer, we would argue, is yes. And yet it is easy to sympathize with the government’s rationale. Lockdown is slowly choking our economy and causing more and more social and mental-health problems. Many businesses, especially small and midsized, barely survived the first lockdown. Citizens are frustrated and fed up with restricted movement. Kids have fallen behind and need to be in school.

Here is another worry. The plan does not include any measures to provide sick benefits to workers who currently have to decide on staying home and not getting paid or going to work sick. The federal plan now in place is insufficient, and the benefits are too late arriving. The government continues to shoot us in the foot by not applying this proven measure to reduce the spread of COVID.

So are we inviting COVID-19, including its variants, back into the living room before they have been properly escorted out of the house?

The government would say no. And there is reason to believe that. Initially, beginning this week, only regions where the virus isn’t as widespread will reopen, and only then with increased controls on things like how many people can be in a business at the same time.

The three health units returning to the province’s five-tier, colour-coded framework are Hastingsprince Edward in the Belleville area, the Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox and Addington health unit, and the Renfrew County and District health unit. They will return to green status, in which hair salons, gyms, movie theatres and other businesses can reopen. Other regions, including Waterloo Region, Hamilton, Halton, Niagara and the Peterborough area should begin reopening Feb. 16, but when and what colour will depend on the status of new cases and other factors closer to the target date. Hot zones in the Greater Toronto Area will not reopen until Feb. 22 depending on conditions at the time.

You may be thinking that now, at least, we have a date for returning to some semblance of normal. True, but a cautionary note is in order. We have variants spreading in several regions, specifically the UK B.1.1.7 variant, the B. 1.351 South African variant and the P. 1 variant from Brazil. The big concern about these is that they are much more contagious and can spread very quickly.

As recently as this weekend, Temiskaming in northeastern Ontario had been scheduled to reopen this week, but one test came back positive with what is believed to be a variant, and the reopening was delayed. A lot can change, fast.

The province says if that happens, it will move quickly to lock down again. Whether or not we can reopen safely this time remains to be seen. The government is trying to strike a delicate balance, one which may not even be possible. Cross your fingers.