Grey zone may only delay onset of third wave: Hirji

To win the race against another COVID-19 wave, Niagara needs vaccines

The grey zone lockdown, to be activated in Niagara Tuesday, has bought the region a little time in the race against highly infectious COVID-19 variants, but Niagara’s top public health official worries it might not be enough to stave off a third pandemic wave in the spring.

Dr. Mustafa Hirji said Friday that keeping Niagara largely locked down for the next two weeks will help further push down the local infection rate and deter visitors from the GTA where the novel coronavirus variants are already circulating.

However, to win the race against another COVID-19 wave, Niagara needs vaccines. Supply of vaccines to Canada is set to dramatically increase in the next few weeks, but Hirji said it won’t be enough.

“You either have to strengthen your lockdown so that it is more effective, which is not what is happening, or you quickly roll out vaccines,” Hirji said. “When I look at what the Ontario science table released (Thursday) that shows that by March/april the new variants will be widely circulating, that is not enough time to vaccinate a large portion of the population.”

On Thursday, the science table released COVID-19 modelling which showed that without strong public health measures to limit the spread of COVID-19, the new variants will rapidly spread across Ontario, triggering a third wave — and likely another full lockdown — by spring.

If that happens, Hirji said the public health and hospital systems that are only now just starting to emerge from the second wave could find themselves quickly overwhelmed.

The province, however, is moving ahead with its plan to restore its colour-coded restrictions system starting Tuesday. That system failed to prevent the second wave, which saw at least 271 Niagara residents with the virus die. In total, 358 Niagarans with the infection have died during the pandemic.

Hirji — along with the Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario, the Ontario Medical Association, the Ontario Hospital Association and other medical officers of health — has voiced opposition to the provincial government’s plan, ar

guing stricter measures were needed to suppress the infection rate until vaccines can be widely distributed.

Hirji said there are several factors why moving Niagara into the grey zone makes sense.

He said while the trend of new daily cases has fallen, that is a recent trend. Cases were substantially higher even a week ago. Opening up before the infection rate is much lower presents a serious risk of undoing the progress to date.

“I think people tend to be focused on the daily cases but forget the longer trends,” he said.

He also pointed out that other regions, including Hamilton and Halton, saw a faster reduction of infections than Niagara has. Combined with the region’s high level of COVID-19 outbreaks — there are still 40 — and hospitalizations, taking more time to push the infection rate makes sense, Hirji said.

The grey zone represents a moderate step toward reopening, but still more than Hirji said he would like given the risk posed by the variants and Niagara’s present situation.

The revised grey zone will allow retail stores to open at 25 per cent capacity for in-person shopping. Indoor dining at restaurants remains prohibited and personal services, including salons, will stay closed.

The zone will remain in effect for at least two weeks.

Hirji said given the threat of the variants — which have yet to be found in Niagara — and the limits of vaccine supply, he is considering using his own authority to place further restrictions on Niagara that could augment the grey zone measures.

He said a decision on these possible measures will be made in the next week or so.

While Niagara is in grey, most of Ontario is being moved into the red zone, which lifts more restrictions on businesses and social activities.

Niagara’s lone government MPP, Sam Oosterhoff of Niagara West, quickly took to Twitter Friday to voice his objections to Niagara’s status in the grey zone.

“Disappointed to see Niagara the only Public Health Unit outside of GTA to remain in grey. I understand this decision is based on advice of our local medical officer of health, Dr. Hirji,” wrote Oosterhoff, who held a large Niagara Falls indoor party without masks in later October as the second wave began to gather steam. “Hope to see us move to red soon, based on positive trends here.”

Hirji said if his advice has been listened to by the province, “that is a good thing,” but he is not sure what level of influence medical officers of health have with Queen’s Park.

“I think our concerns are heard, but once they get into the black box of government decision-making, it does not always turn out the way we would like,” he said.