Six possible variant infections here have GTA links

Medical officer of health expects Niagara to move to red zone next week

There are six suspected cases of infections by variants of the novel coronavirus in Niagara, says the region’s acting medical officer of health, all of them linked to the GTA.

Dr. Mustafara Hirji said in a news briefing Monday the genome of the virus that infected each person is being sequenced to confirm the presence of a variant and identify which strain of the virus is at play.

Hirji said, given the small number of cases, he could not release specific information, but said they are all linked to travel to the Greater Toronto Area. In some cases, he said, Niagara residents were “temporarily staying in the GTA” before coming back to the region, or had visited the GTA. Once in Niagara, those infected people spread the virus to people in their close social circle.

If confirmed, the cases will be the first evidence of variants in Niagara, even as Hirji expects the province may move Niagara into the red zone of pandemic restrictions next week — a move he is not recommending.

Hirji said Niagara’s infection rate has dropped significantly since January — a month that saw record highs of cases and COVID-19 related deaths — but that decline has now slowed down.

Since Feb. 7, Niagara has averaged about 20 new cases a day. Some days, like Monday, which had nine newly confirmed cases, have been well below that. Others have been higher, such as Feb. 12, which saw 38 cases.

There has been no sustained period of less than 20 new cases daily for two weeks and the number of new daily cases remains higher than it was during the peak of the first COVID-19 wave.

That level of infection — combined with ongoing outbreaks and the risks posed by the variants — is why Hirji said he is advocating a “slow and careful” approach to reopening.

Niagara is in the grey lockdown restriction zone.

The red zone would ease some restrictions and allow a limited reopening of some businesses, including restaurants and gyms.

Given that more infectious variants of the virus — particularly the B.1.1.7, or U.K. variant — are spreading in Ontario, Hirji said he would prefer to see the GTA and the Golden Horseshoe locked down until the spread of the variants can be reduced to a more controllable level.

He is particularly concerned Niagara is at risk due to its proximity to the GTA.

Hirji said the provincial government is taking a “more aggressive approach” to reopening. That is why he recently imposed new measures aimed at restaurants and retail shopping. They are intended to act as “guardrails” to limit the spread of the variants should the province loosen restrictions on Niagara, he said.

Hirji has reissued his order that limits the number of people at a restaurant table to the maximum allowed by provincial restrictions, and that everyone at that table must be from the same household or be essential contacts.

Stores, meanwhile, are required to enforce proper maskwearing and social distancing, even in lineups.

Hirji said the restaurant order, originally issued in late October, showed a measurable effect on the infection rate in the fall. Before the order, 17 per cent of Niagara COVID-19 outbreaks were linked to food premises, including restaurants and bars.

Only long-term-care and retirement homes accounted for more outbreaks at the time.

By mid-november, the number of outbreaks linked to food premises dropped drastically, he said.

Hirji said he hopes the measures will have a similar impact, but said there is another avenue for the variants to spread that is harder to control. He said, if Niagara moves into the red zone, many people will erroneously take that as a sign the crisis has passed and will begin to socialize outside of their households or small social bubbles.

Personal gatherings were one of the key drivers in the fall spread of the virus, particularly among people under the age of 40. For example, a superspreader cluster of 20-somethings in Niagara in October spread the virus for nearly a month and triggered two long-term-care home outbreaks.

“It is the socialization that is going to worry me the most, not some particular business sector,” said Hirji.