Saskatoon StarPhoenix

Sask. crops expected to reach near-record levels

Forecast of 33.6M tonnes would be second-largest harvest ever

- BRUCE JOHNSTONE bjohnstone@postmedia.com

The latest crop production forecast from Statistics Canada is projecting 33.6 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds and pulse crops to be harvested in Saskatchew­an this year, which — knock on wood — would be the second-largest crop in the province’s history.Two weeks ago, Agricultur­e Minister Lyle Stewart advised the federal government and the major railways that an above-average crop was expected this year, so as to avoid the grain backlog caused in part by the record crop of 39.1 million tonnes (upgraded from 38.4 million tonnes) in the 2013-14 crop year. By comparison, the 10-year average is 28.3 million tonnes.

The projected near-record crop, which is based on a survey of 13,100 Canadian producers conducted in July and August, is the result of a larger-than-normal wheat crop, a record lentils crop and slightly larger canola harvest than last year in Saskatchew­an, which is the leading producer of all three agricultur­al commoditie­s in Canada.

Total wheat production in Canada is expected to reach 30.5 million tonnes in 2016, up 10.5 per cent from last year. This would mark the second time in 25 years that wheat production will exceed 30 million tonnes, the other being the bumper crop of 2013, the federal agency said. The expected increase in total wheat production results from a projected higher average yield of 49 bushels per acre in 2016, up 14 per cent from 43 bushels per acre in 2015. The projected production increase was despite a 3.3 per cent decline in harvested area to 23 million acres, the lowest level in five years, Statistics Canada said.

Farmers in Saskatchew­an anticipate wheat production to rise 5.1 per cent to 13.7 million tonnes, despite harvested area declining nearly a million acres to 11.9 million acres in 2016. The gain in total wheat production is being driven by a five-bushel-per-acre increase in average yield to 42.2 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected wheat production, however, is lower than 2014, 2013 and 1999, while the record is 18.3 million tonnes in 2013.

Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17 million tonnes of canola in 2016, down 1.2 per cent from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributi­ng to the decline in national production.

By contrast, canola production in Saskatchew­an is expected to edge up 0.8 per cent from 2015 to 8.9 million tonnes in 2016, largely due to a 1.2 per cent increase in harvested area, with average yield similar to the 36 bushels per acre in 2015.

Lentil production is expected to reach a record high in 2016, as farmers project a 36-per-cent increase from a year earlier to 3.2 million tonnes. The rise in lentil production is the result of a 37-percent increase in harvest area to 5.4 million acres, while average yield was 0.5 per cent lower this year at 1,326 pounds per acre.

The majority of Canadian lentil production takes place in Saskatchew­an, where farmers are projecting 2.8 million tonnes for 2016.

Anticipate­d average yield was reported at 1,283 pounds per acre, down 4.2 per cent from 2015. The only fly in the ointment is recent rains, which reduced yield, Statistics Canada said.

“During the survey period in July, significan­t amounts of rain fell in much of the province, which influenced yield expectatio­ns. As rain continued into August, final average yield could be further compromise­d in regions experienci­ng excess moisture.”

 ?? GORD WALDNER ?? The combines were running in fairly dusty conditions southeast of Saskatoon on Monday, bringing in what is expected to be one of the best harvests in Saskatchew­an’s history
GORD WALDNER The combines were running in fairly dusty conditions southeast of Saskatoon on Monday, bringing in what is expected to be one of the best harvests in Saskatchew­an’s history

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