Saskatoon StarPhoenix

The science, and art, of polling

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A political poll is only as accurate as the moment in which it was taken. After that moment, it is anyone’s guess what the results really mean.

There have now been two mayoralty polls completed for the upcoming civic election. The latest results show Don Atchison with 29 per cent support, Charlie Clark with 24 per cent and Kelley Moore with 18 per cent.

In the last poll, Moore made her first appearance in the group of mayoralty hopefuls. Many viewed Moore’s mayoralty bid as surprising, with a remote chance of success.

However, Moore’s initial poll results showed 18 per cent voter support for her candidacy. Moore’s entry level results appear impressive compared to the support for experience­d candidates Atchison and Clark. A closer analysis is required. It is a political truism that, in every election, no matter how popular the incumbent is, 20 per cent of the electorate will immediatel­y register a protest vote against the current establishm­ent.

Accordingl­y, at 18 per cent support, the latest poll tells us Moore, a council outsider, has rallied the anti-establishm­ent vote in her favour. All Moore had to do to earn the 18 per cent was show up and have a pulse. She passes (on both accounts).

The real test for Moore will be the next time Postmedia decides to statistica­lly test the mood of the electorate. If Moore can’t move beyond 20 per cent, it is a sure sign her campaign is not resonating.

Atchison garnered the same result in both polls — 29 per cent. There is a sense that his campaign has stalled. In fairness, this weariness has little to do with Atchison’s personal campaign efforts. He is working long hours trying to win the race. The pressure is on Atchison’s campaign team to repackage Atchison and put forward a set of new and original ideas, which is difficult when your candidate has already been in office for 13 years.

The poll results also told us that Atchison’s support is weaker with younger voters. Atchison desperatel­y needs to gain the confidence of this demographi­c to push his numbers higher.

Recently, we saw Atchison’s team put together a video, 5 Things About Don Atchison, and release the video on social media. It was a smart move. Most people have contact with Atchison while he is on a stage behind a microphone. A more personal glimpse at Atchison was a clever idea. Moreover, the video was released on social media, where younger voters typically receive the majority of their informatio­n.

However, instead of being folksy and affable, the video was awkward and cringewort­hy. Atchison’s team quickly pulled the video off his website and scrubbed it clean from the Internet in an attempt to pretend it never happened. However, prior to the Internet cleansing, some individual­s attempted to parody the video, causing further embarrassm­ent. The video created more problems than it solved and if I was Atchison, I would want my money back.

Clark, on other hand, has no problem attracting support with the younger set. He doesn’t need a video to show off his folksy, likable, demeanour. However, Clark’s support with younger voters could actually prove to be his biggest challenge. Older voters, who currently favour Atchison in greater numbers, get out and vote. Younger voters are less likely to show up at the polls.

Clark’s main hurdle on election day is ensuring his supporters actually cast their ballot. Of all the mayoralty hopefuls, Clark is the one with strongest connection­s to experience­d political organizers. Like Atchison, Clark is a tireless campaigner, and his campaign team’s “get out the vote” strategies will be critical to Clark’s success on election day.

There is one certainty arising from the poll results. With a mere nine-point spread between three candidates, and 24 per cent still undecided how they will cast their ballot, this is a hotly contested mayoralty race that Saskatoon hasn’t seen for 13 years. Every vote will count this time. Make sure you make your mark.

 ?? TIFFANY PAULSEN ??
TIFFANY PAULSEN

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