The big ballot question

This is supposed to be an election of change, but it could still end up being the election Stephen Harper stole with dirty tricks, fear and division.

By importing Lynton Crosby from Australia to help booster their campaign, the Conservatives sent a signal that their penchant for wedge politics was about to enter a whole new realm.

Crosby helped conservative parties win in both Australia and the United Kingdom through negative campaigning, wedge issues, playing the margins and vote targeting. In other words, it’s about winning at all costs, or scorched earth politics.

It’s not unlike how the Harper Conservatives have run the country. It’s all about keeping the conservative base motivated, a.k.a. angry.

Why change tactics now, when this has been a winning formula?

The ballot question should not be what a woman should or shouldn’t wear at a citizenship ceremony. Indeed, since 2011 only two women — yes, two — have refused to take the citizenship oath because of the niqab ban. Somewhere down the road, the courts will rule on this. Let them.

Right now, it is the wedge issue the Conservatives are counting on to motivate their base and win them the most seats on Oct. 19.

But the ballot question should be based on Stephen Harper’s record. This is a government plagued by scandal. It has the worst economic record since the Second World War. It has dismantled data, defunded civil society. It has broken election laws without blinking an eye. They’ve ridiculed science and muzzled scientists. They have shown nothing but contempt for the Constitution and our Charter of Rights and Freedoms. It is a government that has diminished our reputation in the world.

And yet, their cynical play may win them enough seats.

This is supposed to be the election in which the vast majority of Canadians desperate for a different kind of politics, a different kind of Canada than the one we have had over the past decade, vote to replace the Harper Conservatives.

Instead, the prime minister that nearly 70 per cent of Canadians don’t want to win this thing can still win this thing.

Harper has had an easier ride than he deserves. The Liberals have spent a lot of time attacking the NDP and the NDP has retaliated.

Polls are potentially harmful to the democratic process, but for better or worse, we are stuck with them.

Regional breakdowns and the always critical ground campaigns are perhaps more important than the daily horse-race numbers. But these factors are getting less attention in the headlines. This can drive voters away from winning campaigns in a direction that can end up delivering a minority government for the Conservatives.

Figuring out who can win the most seats means examining where parties are strong and where they are not; where they can make realistic gains and where they are unlikely to do so.

In other words, it’s about electoral math. And in a close race, math and ground campaigns matter. Who can win the most seats? Alice Funke is the creator of Pundits’ Guide — a web database of federal election statistics she has “compiled as a labour of love since 2007.” In a blog post last week, she explained why “minority math” will be a huge challenge for the Liberals. She does not predict seats, but does an excellent analysis of the probabilities.

With the addition of 30 new ridings since 2011, there are now 338 seats at play. The Conservatives held 159 going into this election; the New Democrats, 95; and the Liberals, 36.

To win a minority, the NDP needs to hold its seats and win 35 more. The Liberals must hold theirs and win an additional 100 seats in order to be in minority territory.

If the ballot question is who can replace Stephen Harper, the Liberals have an uphill climb. Funke explains why. Increasing their vote share in places where they are already doing well (parts of the Atlantic region, sections of Ontario, angloQuebec) will not translate into enough seats for the Liberals, who Funke says are simply uncompetitive in over half the 338 seats.

The Liberals have run a strong campaign. Their leader has outperformed low expectations.

The NDP has run a solid campaign, but needs now to lean more towards what will inspire people. This means talking about values; speaking to the hearts of Canadians.

This election should be about who can replace Harper (or who together can replace the Conservatives). But it is also about the kind of Canada we want.

This can still be the election of change. Voters will need both their hearts and their heads when they go to the ballot box.