The uncertain future of work

Is it any wonder young people are feeling a little generational angst — or rather, inequity?

After all, they did everything they were told. They went to college and university. They got degrees and diplomas, often more than one of each. They stayed in school, accumulating staggering debt in many cases.

It was supposed to be worth it because that education was their ticket to Freedom 55, to a prosperous working life, to getting ahead.

That post-secondary education was the guarantee that they would do better than their parents; be more successful.

But all that debt is not exactly delivering dividends — at least not for everyone. Young people, the most educated generation ever, face an uncertain and precarious future. Their top-notch education isn’t lifting all boats and the world of work is fast changing.

A new study by the Ottawabased Centre for the Study of Living Standards examining job quality in Canada, including the low-wage gap and lowwage intensity, found that the incidence of low-wage work is growing at a higher rate among those with the most education.

Between 1997 and 2014 there was a whopping 60 per cent increase in the incidence of low wages among workers with graduate degrees.

It’s no wonder so many young people are feeling left out of the promise of a better tomorrow.

My friends with adult children are worried. If their kids are fortunate enough to get a job in their field of study (a big if), it is often a temporary, short-term contract or a series of temporary contracts with lower wages and no benefits. This does not make for a secure future. Throw in the cost of housing and is it any wonder household debtloads are the highest in history?

Studies show that job quality and job security are on the decline in Canada. Part-time work accounts for nearly one in five of all jobs. Temporary jobs are growing at twice the rate of permanent jobs. Temporary workers earn about 70 per cent of what permanent workers make, often with no benefits.

This kind of job market will not help expand Canada’s middle class.

Coupled with this growing precariousness of work is the elimination of good family-sustaining jobs to a world of robots, automation and computers. Technology is great, except when it isn’t.

In 1994, American economist Jeremy Rifkin wrote about “The End of Work.” It was an alarming analysis of why technological advances would replace work as we know it.

In 2000, Rifkin claimed that “based on current and projected trends … in the year 2050, less than five per cent of the human population on Earth — working with and alongside intelligent technology — will be required to produce all the goods and basic services needed by the human race.”

Couple this with the meteoric rise of precarious jobs and what many, including Canadian economist Armine Yalnizyan, call the “gig economy” — and it’s clear. Canada needs a jobs plan as well as broader-based examination of what is happening to work, the impact on the economy, and more importantly, on the well-being of people and societies. Knowing where we are headed is key to being prepared for this massive transition.

In turn, governments must lead a discussion around policy options and actions to ensure the outcome is not left to the marketplace.

The staggering loss of manufacturing jobs after the global financial crisis was, for the short term, masked by the boom in resource-based sectors, like the oil and gas industry. But now that these jobs are in decline, and with no big rebound in the manufacturing sector, there is plenty of reason to worry about the future of good jobs in Canada.

It is why many argue that we should weave our climate change targets with an aggressive investment in the green economy, building greener energy and greener infrastructure and creating good jobs along the way.

While the deficit in Newfoundland and Labrador is a serious problem, the government can’t cut its way to prosperity. It, too, needs a green jobs strategy and a diversification plan that builds on our strengths — our resources and our creativity.

What’s happening to work is a global problem. The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) latest jobs report notes that in 2015, total unemployment reached 197.1 million — higher than before the economic and financial crisis of 2008-09. There is expected to be over 200 million people unemployed by 2017. This doesn’t include the many hundreds of millions underemployed, or employed in lowwage and precarious work, estimated to be in the range of 1.5 billion people.

“We need to take urgent action to boost the number of decent work opportunities or we risk intensified social tensions,” says ILO head Guy Ryder.

I couldn’t agree more.