‘We’re not backing down’
Trump says tariffs on Canada, Mexico depend on whether we get a NAFTA deal
President Donald Trump has lobbed a grenade of uncertainty onto the NAFTA negotiating table, suggesting that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel are now dependent on whether the countries agree to a new trade pact.
“We’re not backing down... Right now, 100 per cent (chance we proceed with tariffs),” Trump said Monday in the Oval Office.
”But it could be a part of NAFTA.“
Those remarks supplemented a morning tweet indicating the tariffs are now a leverage play to squeeze Canada and Mexico in the trade negotiations. Trump tweeted that steel and aluminum tariffs would only come off if a new NAFTA is signed.
But it’s unclear from his evolving message whether this is really a calculated powerplay, an improvised effort to calm his own jittery party that these tariffs are temporary or an indication that the whole process hasn’t been thoroughly thought out.
Just last week the president made clear he viewed the tariffs as permanent, casually announcing levies of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminum, then adding that they were ”unlimited,“for an ”unlimited period“and ”for a long period of time.“
Now he’s saying they could be gone in a few months, if a new NAFTA gets completed. Further adding to the confusion, the latest plot-twist risked undermining the entire legal justification for tariffs: that foreign metals present a nationalsecurity risk to the U.S.
Washington trade consultant Eric Miller said the president may have now created a paper trail damaging his own case by publicly suggesting that he viewed the exercise as a negotiating ploy.
It’s impossible to predict how long this uncertainty will last, said Miller: for years as a permanent tariff, months as a negotiating tactic or just a few days before it unceremoniously evaporates under the heat of domestic opposition.
Trump promises a formal announcement within a week.
“It’s a mess,” said Miller, of the Rideau Potomac Strategy Group.
“This drama is going to play out for some time. The ramifications for NAFTA could be significant... (Or) we could be sitting here next week looking at a Canadian exemption. Because there are a lot of people in this town going to bat for a Canadian exemption. This thing is not done by any stretch of the imagination.”
Trump faces unusually fierce opposition from his own party.
While Republicans in Washington tend to shy away from fights with the president, this time they’re escalating the feud. The top figure in the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, began the day by issuing a press release blaming the tariff talk for dips in the stock market.
He then issued a statement: ”We are extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and are urging the White House to not advance with this plan.” Meanwhile, other Republican lawmakers were planning more formal letters to express their dissent.
Canada, the European Union, and Mexico have hinted at retaliatory measures if Trump proceeds, and the World Trade Organization has expressed concern about an escalating titfor-tat scenario that rattles the foundation of the post-second World War international economic system.
The North American governments were expected to speak to the issue later Monday. All three countries are in Mexico at a NAFTA negotiating round, and the political ministers leading the negotiations will make closing statements.
Miller said Canada has no choice but to retaliate. He said the country must simply pick targets create political pressure but do minimal damage to the economy. For instance, Europe has threatened bourbon, Harley Davidson motorcycles, and blue jeans - made in the home states of congressional leaders Mitch Mcconnell of Kentucky, Ryan of Wisconsin and Nancy Pelosi of California.