Liberals, PCS neck and neck in Abacus Data poll results
Survey suggests majority feel province still headed in wrong direction
Only one in four people in the province think Newfoundland and Labrador is headed in the right direction, according to a new Abacus Data poll.
After surveying 800 adults in the province, Abacus Data found 53 per cent felt the province is specifically headed in the wrong direction.
Deficit, finances generally and developing future opportunities for young people were suggested to be the most significant concerns, among options that also included infrastructure, availability of well-paying jobs, quality of health care and quality of schools.
With the state of affairs, paired with public airing of bullying and harassment issues within the House of Assembly, with complaints levelled against the Liberal caucus and with ministers ousted, Premier Dwight Ball received mixed support.
When people were asked whether or not the premier should step down, 47 per cent said no, 33 per cent said yes and 21 per cent were not sure (figures won’t always add up to 100 due to rounding).
Harassment and bullying response
The investigations have only recently started, but from what has been said on the subject to date, the poll shows 91 per cent of residents think bullying and harassment allegations related to the Liberal cabinet and caucus are likely to be true, at least to some extent.
On the premier’s performance there, anyone following the issue more closely is more likely to think the premier has handled it acceptably, while 51 per cent feel Ball has done a good or at least acceptable job.
On the other hand, 36 per cent find he has done a poor or very poor job of handling the situation.
New opposition leaders
Compared to Progressive Conservative Leader Ches Crosbie and NDP Leader Gerry Rogers, Ball has far more people saying they have a mostly negative or very negative impression of him (16 per cent for both Rogers and Crosbie, while 44 per cent for Ball).
“Mr. Ball’s negatives are high, but not as high as we see among incumbents in other provinces and right now his rivals are largely unknown,” the report from David Coletto and Tim Powers
states, giving a nod to the recent leadership elections of both Rogers and Crosbie.
If a provincial election was held today, however, it’s still a race.
The Liberals and Ball, and the Progressive Conservatives with Crosbie, are statistically tied (at 22 per cent support for the Liberals and 24 per cent support for the PCS). The NDP with Rogers is in third place, at 13 per cent.
Looking only at decided voters, the PCS carry 40 per cent, the Liberals 38 per cent and the NDP 22 per cent — a threepoint drop for the Liberals from January polling, and a six-point rise for the PCS.
The NDP is doing well among younger residents and are at 13 per cent, up from the 12 per cent favourable response in January.
The bigger story, according to the Abacus Data report, is the number of undecided voters, which is down but still sitting at 41 per cent.
“That’s down seven from January but still quite high in our experience polling in jurisdictions across Canada,” the report states.
The Abacus Data poll was a combination of telephone survey and web surveys, involving 800 adults in the province, with surveys completed from May 18-27.
In all, 500 interviews were conducted online and another 300 interviews were by random phone call.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 800 is plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The data was weighted according to census data, to assure the sample matched the population in terms of age, gender, education and region.