The latest in 2019 travel pricing
Will it be a happy new year for vacationers in 2019? That will really depend on how they travel. There are a number of factors that should affect the cost of trips next year, and beyond. If you’re planning on vacationing next year — and I hope you are — here’s what to look out for.
Airfares: “Up, up and away” is the price forecast from most industry watchers. Airfares, particularly from North America to Asia and Europe, have been unusually low during the past three years thanks to depressed fuel costs and increased competition on those routes. Those knock-down battles for market share are still going strong among such players as Norwegian Airlines, Air Asia, WOW Airlines and the legacy carriers (and others).
But with fuel costs creeping ever higher — the cost of a barrel of fuel was just $30 in January 2016, and last month it was $68 — most in the industry are assuming that fares will have to shift upward. Just this week, a new study from The Global Business Travel Association, and Carlson Wagonlit (the massive network of travel agencies), forecast that airfares were about to increase 2.6 percent overall. In some countries — specifically, India, New Zealand, Norway, Chile and Germany — that study shows prices soaring a whopping seven per cent.
The advice: Though buying fares too far in advance can stick the consumer with a higher-than-usual rate, it might
be a good idea to start searching for 2019 fares in the coming months. If you see a reasonable airfare, lock it in. It just may rise.
Hotels: That same study, citing strong revenue growth among the major multinational hotel brands, projects an increase of five per cent in nightly hotel rates in Asia and Europe, and 2.1 per cent in North America. Interestingly, the trend is reversed in Latin America, with an expected drop of 1.3 per cent in hotel rates. The advice: Going to Latin America seems like a nobrainer. But beyond that, it is important to remember that consumers aren’t as beholden as they once were to hotels for their vacationing needs. When prices go too high, it’s not hard to turn to home rentals, room rentals and, for very adventurous travellers, free homestays through such organizations as Globalfreeloaders.org and Couchsurfing.com.
Cruises: After a few quiet years, the cruise industry is gearing up to introduce a number of colossal new ships. During the next 18 months, 11 new ones will debut, all of which carry 3,900 passengers or more. Those will be followed by even more new builds in 2020 and 2021. What does this mean for the consumer? If history is any guide, in the wake of these introductions will come discounts — a lot of them. The market will be literally flooded with staterooms, and the cruise lines most likely will have to cut prices to sell them all.
The advice: Take a wait-andsee approach. We likely won’t be seeing significant discounts until these ships actually start sailing and older vessels stop being able to sell all of their cabins.
Note to the reader: Please be sure to confirm all rates and details directly with the companies in question before planning your trip. The information in this column was accurate when it was released, but prices are competitive, sometimes limited and can always change without notice. Pauline Frommer is the Editorial Director for the Frommer Travel Guides and Frommers.com. She co-hosts the radio program The Travel Show with her father, Arthur Frommer and is the author of the best-selling Frommer’s Easyguide to New York City.