Gap widens in federal voting intentions in Atlantic Canada: Poll
The federal Liberal Party has widened the gap between Liberal and Conservative decided-voter support among Atlantic Canadians, while support for the Green Party has held across the region, according to the most recent survey conducted by Narrative Research.
With the imminent federal election this fall, overall decided voter support for the governing Liberals has shifted slightly this quarter and now stands at 43 per cent (up from 39 per cent in May 2019, and down from 47 per cent in February 2019).
By contrast, decided voter support for the federal Conservatives has dropped to 30 per cent (compared with 36 per cent in May and 35 per cent in February).
“This has been an important quarter for the Liberal Party. The gap in decided voter intentions has grown to 13 points (up from three points in May), and the question will be whether the gap will remain in the months to come,” says Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.
“Four years ago the Liberal government swept the region taking all 32 seats. Today, Atlantic Canadians are less unanimous about the party, making the region a more competitive landscape.”
The federal Green Party has held its dominant position over the New Democratic Party in decided support in this region, a position it reached last quarter for the first time ever.
Support for the Greens has reached 15 per cent, sustaining its jump to 14 per cent in May, which was up notably from six per cent in February.
NDP support stands at 10 per cent (compared with nine per cent in May and 11 per cent in February).
“Findings suggest that in the Maritimes, the NDP may be replaced by the Greens as the main alternative to the Liberals or Conservatives,” says Brigley. “But in Newfoundland and Labrador, the Green Party has not successfully established itself and the NDP has gained traction as the third party of choice.”
On a province-by-province basis, among decided voters, this quarter the Liberals maintain their lead in Nova Scotia, and have assumed a strong lead over the Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The greatest change in the past quarter has been in New Brunswick where the Liberals have overtaken the Conservatives among decided voters. In Prince Edward Island, the Conservatives hold the lead over the Liberal Party.
Among the roughly four-in-10 Atlantic Canadians who are undecided or won’t say which party they plan to vote for, 19 per cent are leaning towards the Liberals, 16 per cent are leaning towards the Conservatives, seven per cent are leaning towards the NDP, and six per cent towards the Green Party, while 51 per cent of this group remains either undecided (unable to offer a leaning preference) or refuses to state which party they are leaning towards. Meanwhile, the share of Atlantic Canadians who are satisfied with the performance of the federal Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains low at 43 per cent (in May it had reached its lowest mark of 41 per cent since the Liberals took power).
In terms of which party leader voters most prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is the preferred choice of 31 per cent (compared to 30 per cent in May 2019 and 35 per cent in February).
Preference for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer appears to have waned this past quarter and he is now the choice of 21 per cent (compared to 26 per cent in May and 26 per cent in February).
Green Leader Elizabeth May is the choice of 16 per cent (up from 15 per cent in May and nine per cent in February), and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is preferred by eight per cent (compared to nine per cent in May and six per cent in February).
“Findings suggest that Andrew Scheer failed to build momentum in the region this past quarter, despite increased scrutiny on the Liberal Party over the SNC Lavalin affair. By contrast, Trudeau has held his position overall as the most preferred leader in the region, despite some differences of opinion across provinces,” says Brigley.
These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly, an independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 1,500 adult Atlantic Canadians 18 years of age or older, conducted from July 31 – Aug. 22, 2019, with overall results accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.
Narrative Research, www. narrativeresearch.ca, is described in the news release as one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Founded in 1978, it is formerly known as Corporate Research Associates.