No small sample size
Across the board, Leafs should be embarrassed by early-season play
This is not the time to fire Mike Babcock.
But if something doesn’t change — and soon — with the rather moribund Maple Leafs, the time may be rapidly approaching.
Thirteen games into this season, the Maple Leafs are a convoluted mess. There is no nice way of sugar-coating this: They are a team lacking in identity, a club playing far below its capabilities, deficient in structure, not competitive enough to succeed. The coach should be at his wit’s end right about now, having never faced a challenge of this magnitude in his decorated career.
The players, across the board, should be embarrassed, by the little they’ve accomplished on the ice and the manner in which they have performed in the majority of their games to date. By my count, they’ve played 13 times, four of them of reasonable quality.
If you stretch this into last year’s playoffs against Boston — where, for the most part, they did play reasonably well — and into the last regular season, the Leafs have won 34 of their past 70 games.
That is no small sample size, even with a roster significantly changed from a year ago. This is who they are right now. And what makes this so exasperating is that this isn’t who they should be: Playing at a 90-point pace over a 70-game stretch.
Not good enough to make the playoffs, let alone win a playoff round, let alone contend.
In assessing teams years ago, the Hall of Famer Cliff Fletcher had a basic arm’s-length approach to evaluating his situation. He would take his roster and divide his players into three categories: Those who were playing to expectations; those who were playing beyond expectations; and those who were playing below them.
Then he’d have a sense of what needed to change and why.
Here’s my evaluation of the current Leafs. Those playing above expectations: Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot and Dmytro Timashov. And that’s it. Unless you want to stick Justin Holl in there as well.
Those playing to expectations: Frederik Andersen, Jake Muzzin,
Kasperi Kapanen (after getting off the top line) and Trevor Moore.
And those with little expectations to begin with: Fred Gauthier, Nick Shore and Kevin Gravel.
Players falling below expectations are the most concerning here: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson, Cody Ceci and then the lesser-lights Jason Spezza, Nic Petan and Martin Marincin.
We have no rating at this time, obviously, for John Tavares, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott.
Using the Fletcher method, the Leafs should be struggling and, in this case, like most teams, will only go as far as the stars take them.
If Matthews doesn’t score, he isn’t making his presence felt enough in other ways. He isn’t creating much offence — he has just three assists. He isn’t hard enough on the puck in the offensive zone and now, as witnessed on Saturday night in Montreal, he’s pressing the way a young man with a huge contract presses when things don’t go his way.
On too many nights, a man that big and that strong, that talented, has been invisible. That’s a problem for the Leafs.
Marner’s play has been problematic as well. In the seven games the Leafs have lost, he does not have a goal in any of them, and just four assists. He’s been a minus-player in every one of those defeats. He may be on pace for another 94-point season, but his play hasn’t been as commanding and, too often, he is forcing turnovers at both blue lines, the kind of plays that get teams beaten.
It’s different with Rielly, who is clearly nursing some kind of injury, but remains in the lineup. He’s scoring at an impressive rate, but not playing from blue line back the way he is capable.
For the Leafs to succeed, they need to be led by a healthy Tavares, by Matthews, by Marner, by Rielly. If all of them aren’t playing the way they are capable, the Leafs aren’t going to survive by living off of Kerfoot and Mikheyev.
And as sharp as Nylander can look on occasion, his play has been spotty. He has three goals in 13 games and his penchant for missing the net on good scoring opportunities has become his calling card. He’s on pace for 19 goals and 50 points.