An awful lot riding on Plan B
Don’t worry. Be happy.
The much-delayed software needed to make the Labrador-island Link (LIL) operate will eventually be delivered, and it will eventually work dependably. And if it doesn’t, there’s an as-yet-undisclosed Plan B.
Nalcor CEO Stan Marshall says so. Natural Resources Minister Siobhan Coady says so.
But hold on. Not everyone says so.
In fact, a key consultant is now warning that not only will the LIL not be ready this winter, it may not be ready for next winter, either. And that sets up a cascade of other expensive issues.
The Liberty Consulting Group of Lebanon, Pennsylvania, just issued its eighth quarterly monitoring report for this province’s Public Utilities Board on the continuing integration of all of the Muskrat Falls project into our existing power system.
(It’s worth pointing out here that the cold-eyes, unbiased quarterly reviews by Liberty have been far more accurate in predicting problems with progress on things like the LIL than either Nalcor or the provincial government has been.)
Liberty’s latest report, though, raises not only software issues, but major design and construction flaws as well.
“The past quarter has been a disappointing one across a broad range of fronts in the transition to operations of the Lower Churchill Project,” Liberty’s report says. “For a project whose schedule should be approaching completion, the persistence of long-standing problems, the emergence of new ones, and a continuing lack of work completion are troubling. Not only will the Labrador Island Link that connects Muskrat Falls generation to the Island Interconnected System fail to enter service this winter, but its operation for the next one is now becoming less certain.”
(Oh, and here’s a line you never want to see describing issues in a power system the province is expecting to depend on: “Causes remain uncertain, and potential remedies have only conceptual solutions identified …”)
Beyond the already-wellknown delays and problems with software needed to make the LIL work, there are new problems with major equipment at the brand-new Soldier’s Pond terminal station as well.
Right now at Soldier’s Pond, all three synchronous condenser units — needed to stabilize the power system and prevent cascading blackouts — have problems.
“Construction of all three synchronous condenser units is complete, but recently discovered vibration and rotor binding issues identified during commissioning present risks that they may not be able to support the island integrated system until issue resolution,” Liberty writes. “Investigation to determine the root cause of these issues has begun, but appears to be in early stages. Nalcor reported that conceptual ‘fixes’ have been identified, but not yet supported by analysis and engineering or confirmed as effective.”
Here’s what the problems look like: “Unit 3 commissioning apparently has disclosed the existence of troubling vibration issues. Moreover, binding issues on Units 1 and 2 have prevented even their rotation. Little information is available at this stage of issue identification and response,” Liberty writes.
In layman’s terms, Unit 3 shakes unreasonably and may need costly foundation work, and Units 1 and 2 can’t even be tested yet, because they stick when they’re supposed to turn.
Liberty continues: “Management has not ruled out very extensive remedies that might require potentially very long durations. Management has, however, expressed optimism that, despite the great uncertainty surrounding the issue, it will have identified and implemented a solution that will permit condenser operation in June of 2020, as required to support testing.”
The ongoing problems, Liberty points out, “Raise issues about the ability of the LIL and the island integrated system to operate reliably and as intended, threatening the need for underfrequency load shedding” — that’s power blackouts — “creating the potential for long-term and possibly very expensive transmission reinforcement or Avalon generation availability solutions to ensure adequate service reliability.”
And there’s still the delayed software problem.
(You’ve got to love the dry sarcasm of paragraphs like this one: “Recent Nalcor communication with General Electric has produced optimism that General Electric now understands that providing a quality product has equal importance with meeting milestones. Of course such an understanding appears reasonable to have been expected at work inception.”)
Delays mean increased interest costs — and other issues. Testing of the Muskrat Falls generators can’t happen if the power doesn’t have anywhere to go — and with the LIL delayed, Nalcor’s looking at sending the power west to Hydro-québec. Except Hydro-québec is concerned about ongoing problems with the system damaging its own equipment, and isn’t keen to take the power. So, more delays.
I haven’t even got the space to explain another design issue that may keep the LIL from carrying full power — the “identification of a potentially serious converter station control software issue. Potentially, the issue compromises the complete design of the converters.”
All in all, it sounds more than daunting.
And I feel I have to point this out again: Liberty’s been right, all along.