Federal leaders sidestepping Alberta’s equalization referendum
“They don’t want to touch it with a 10-foot pole. That’s their best response, but where it’s gonna get a lot dicey is in the aftermath of the vote” Duane Bratt Political science professor, Mount Royal University, Calgary
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Erin O’toole are refusing to be drawn on Alberta’s upcoming referendum on equalization, making it unclear if anyone will be listening when Albertans speak this fall.
For Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, the referendum is a way of highlighting the unfairness of equalization, but for federal leaders it poses a major political headache about how to respond to the vote.
Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said he is not surprised that federal leaders are wary of getting involved.
“They don’t want to touch it with a 10-foot pole,” he said. “That’s their best response, but where it’s gonna get a lot dicey is in the aftermath of the vote.”
This week, Alberta’s legislature is considering the precise wording of the proposed equalization referendum, but it will be on the ballot in October, in conjunction with municipal elections in the province.
As currently worded, it would ask Albertans if the section of Canada’s Constitution that supports equalization payments should be removed. The referendum was a campaign promise from Kenney and he has said it would draw national attention to the unfairness of the current program.
Removing that section of the Constitution would require federal government support, but it would also need agreement of seven out of the 10 provinces, representing 50 per cent of the population.
Provincial opposition leader Rachel Notley sent a letter last week to O’toole, asking for his position. In the letter, Notley said she wanted to see if any federal leader would actually negotiate the equalization formula out of the Constitution as the referendum calls for.
“It is my view that it is not a matter that should be undertaken lightly, without some clear understanding that there is at least one federal leader who would pursue this objective,” wrote Notley to O’toole. “To do so would be to raise the ire of a portion of Albertans while at the same time providing no meaningful prospect of securing the outcome they are being asked to choose.”
On Monday, O’toole declined to say whether he would open up constitutional talks, saying he didn’t want to interfere in a decision best left to Albertans.
“I have full confidence that Albertans and their legislature can make decisions and hold referendums on issues that are important to Albertans,” he said. “I think the frustrations in Alberta are due to Ottawa, due to Mr. Trudeau and his paternalistic view towards the provinces. I think the last thing they need is interference in their own affairs.”
O’toole said he is committed to addressing national unity issues across the federation and would work to do that as prime minister.
“In the first conversation I had, hours after winning the leadership and becoming opposition leader, I raised Western alienation with Prime Minister Trudeau. The division we feel, the frustration we feel, is due to the Trudeau Liberals ideological approach.”
Kenney, who endorsed O’toole in the Conservative leadership race, said during a news conference Monday that he doesn’t expect federal parties to be part of this conversation.
“I have never thought about federal parties intervening in a provincial referendum here in Alberta,” he said.
He stressed he believes the referendum will soothe western alienation and bring the province deeper into Canada.
“This is something we do, as I said in the legislature last week, not out of animosity with the rest of the country, but to strengthen our role in the federation,” he said.
Postmdia News reached out to Trudeau’s office, but received a response from Jean-sébastien Comeau, press secretary to Intergovernmental affairs minister Dominc Leblanc. The answer did not address how the government would respond to a referendum.
“Canadians expect us to work together to grow our economy and make sure middle-class families across the country have access to quality services,” he said. “Our government will continue to work collaboratively with provinces and territories in the best interests of all Canadians.”
A poll done in August 2020 by Environics research found that support for the equalization is lowest in Alberta, but 57 per cent of Albertans are still in favour of the program existing.
Bratt said the referendum question is an interesting choice, because it specifically asks about eliminating the program, not fixing it.
“When we poll about ‘Is equalization unfair to Alberta,’ you get a really high majority support. If you ask, should it be removed from the Constitution, that support drops.”
He said the referendum question will likely be a catchall for voters, bringing in their opinions about Trudeau, Kenney, and the federation more generally.
Bratt said Trudeau and O’toole should have a plan for dealing with the result, even if they don’t say it publicly, because ignoring the vote will only breed more cynicism.
“The danger of that is a government, or an opposition party, to be able to drum up support by saying see we’re not being listened to, we’re not being respected, we had this referendum, and nobody cares.”