Significant rain, flood risk accompanies late March warmup
It’s a wet but mild end to March.
A Colorado low is sitting over Hudson Bay, but its cold front extends back into the Gulf of Mexico. This front and high pressure offshore are drawing moisture and mild air up the Eastern Seaboard and into Atlantic Canada.
A separate trough will also develop within this energy and track through the region this weekend.
Periods of rain and drizzle will continue, but the steadiest and, at times, heaviest rain with a risk of thundershowers will be Thursday through Friday for the Maritime provinces and Friday through Saturday for Newfoundland. Labrador will see a mixture of rain, snow, and ice.
Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday could range from 60 to 80 mm in southern New Brunswick and along the Fundy coast of Nova Scotia, with local amounts up to 100-plus mm not ruled out.
Otherwise, 20 to 40 mm is forecast for the rest of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland, with pockets of 40 to 60 mm. The exceptions are eastern P.E.I., northeast mainland Nova Scotia to northern Cape Breton, and northwest New Brunswick, where 10 to 30 mm is forecast.
Intense rain and locations with rapid snowmelt increase the risk of localized flooding.
There will also be gusty winds as the low passes Friday and Saturday – first from the south, then becoming west and northwest. Peak gusts for most will range from 40 to 70 km/h, but gusts up to 80-plus km/h are possible.
As the centre of low passes through the Maritimes on Saturday, we will see rain ease to lighter showers and some flurries or snow showers. While snowfall shouldn’t be a concern for most of us, some light accumulations can’t be ruled out, and parts of western New Brunswick – especially the northwest might need their shovels.
Gradual improvements will take place through Saturday and Saturday night across Newfoundland and Labrador as precipitation becomes lighter and more scattered.
A ridge of high pressure will return for Easter Sunday and to welcome the month of April, which will help settle our weather.