The Dykstra manoeuvre
Like him or hate him, you have to give Rick Dykstra respect for his ability to read the political tea leaves.
The former St. Catharines MP announced he is seeking the Progressive Conservative nomination in the riding of Niagara West– Glanbrook to replace retiring MPP and former PC leader Tim Hudak.
It’s a calculated move for Dykstra that could secure him an elected seat for a long time to come.
With Hudak stepping down, the PCs needed a solid candidate to keep the riding blue.
And it looked like it had one last week when Grimsby regional councillor and Tory faithful Tony Quirk threw his hat into the ring.
All things being equal, a candidate like Quirk — who has the support of Hudak — is a near shoe-in for the nomination. But things aren’t equal anymore. Dykstra, of course, doesn’t live in the riding — you can expect Quirk to attack Dykstra on this point — but he has a more impressive political resume and is, frankly, a more influential figure in conservative circles. Although Quirk has Hudak’s support, the party is probably anxious to turn the page on its last two failed elections. In other words, his endorsement might not be the golden handshake Quirk hoped it would be.
You may ask why, if Dykstra wants to run provincially, he doesn’t return to his former federal stomping ground of St. Catharines? Two words: Jim Bradley. Regardless of what kind of shape the Liberals are in by the 2018 election, unseating Bradley as the St. Catharines MPP is a long shot. Bradley has survived the fall and rise of his party’s fortunes more than once. Citizens elect Bradley to represent them more than they do the Liberal party or its leader.
From a risk/reward perspective, avoiding the Garden City makes sense. If Dykstra ran and lost, particularly if the Liberals are treading water, it would effectively end his political career.
On the other hand, Niagara West– Glanbrook is relatively safe for any PC candidate, especially since the Liberals appear to be without a legitimate contender in the riding.
This is not to say the Tories are on track to form the next government in Queen’s Park, even if the Liberals are once again less than popular with voters.
The past three elections were the Tories for the taking. The Liberals were weak and very beatable. But a series of truly disastrous campaigns — including the ridiculous faith-based schools funding policy of John Tory and the math-challenged million-jobs plan of Hudak — were the policy icebergs to the PC Titanic.
Current PC Leader Patrick Brown, perhaps out of a fear of electoral success, isn’t learning from the past. In a transparent bid to appeal to religious fundamentalists and other social conservatives, Brown has vowed to repeal the Liberal’s sex education curriculum.
This is not a winnable battle. Instead of moving the party forward and attacking the Liberals on serious policy areas like health care or climate change, Brown is entrenching it in the socially regressive politics that not only failed his predecessors, but also sunk the re-election bid of the federal Conservative party.
And if the Liberals are good at anything, it is finding and highlighting these sorts of Tory missteps and turning them into electoral stakes to the heart.
None of this will hurt Dykstra, though.
If Dykstra gets past Quirk, he won’t face the full force of the Liberal campaign machine. It will be a byelection against a couple of Johnny-come-latelys from the NDP and Liberals. So he won’t carry the party’s platform baggage to the voting booth.
If the PCs win the general election, Dykstra is a shoo-in for a cabinet post — something forever out of his reach in Ottawa.
However, if the party loses, Dykstra is still in good shape. With no credible competition in the riding, he will retain his seat and will be possible leadership candidate.
Although I am not betting a man, I’d wager that, unless something drastically changes between now and 2018, Dykstra’s name is going to be in the political news a lot more often.