Assad remains in place
Unlikely that Syrian president will leave position willingly as military makes gains
BEIRUT — His nation is a smouldering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions, domestic or foreign. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant and human rights abuser. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future.
The sides in Syria’s civil war are preparing for the eighth round of UN- sponsored peace talks in Geneva intended to set a political transition to end the nearly sevenyearold conflict. Barring any surprises, no negotiated resolution is likely to lead to Assad’s ouster.
One reason is military. Assad’s forces have had the momentum on the ground the past year, backed by an overwhelming Russian air campaign and fighters from Iran and Hezbollah. Assad’s government now controls more than 50 per cent of Syria.
Holding half the country normally wouldn’t be an optimistic sign, but that’s up from 19 per cent earlier this year.
His troops control Syria’s four largest cities, 10 of its 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast. No force on the ground is capable of driving Assad out at this stage.
On the diplomatic front, the top opposition supporters, the U. S. and its allies, long ago backed off demands that any deal involve Assad’s immediate removal. Now they are pushing for a plan for elections that could bring a new leader.
But Assad’s ally Russia now dominates the negotiating process, meaning there is little pressure on him to accept real elections — or any election before his term ends in 2021. A political solution under his terms would be to incorporate opposition members into a national unity government under his leadership.
Assad’s opposition is in disarray. The top opposition negotiator, Riyad Hijab, resigned Monday, complaining that foreign powers were carving up Syria and brokering side deals to “prolong the life of Bashar Assad’s regime.” The opposition is meeting later the week in Saudi Arabia to come up with a unified delegation and negotiating stance. Saudi Arabia has already signalled to the opposition it has to come to terms with Assad’s survival.
Assad looks increasingly confident. On Monday, he travelled to the Russian city of Sochi for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
U. S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in late October repeated Washington’s call for Assad to surrender control, insisting that “the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end.”
But turning that call into reality takes leverage that Washington doesn’t appear ready to use.
In a joint statement released earlier this month, U. S. President Donald Trump and Putin agreed there is no military solution to Syria’s war.
They made vague comments about Assad’s “recent commitment to the Geneva process and constitutional reform and elections” as called for under a UN Security Council resolution.
There are few scenarios that could bring about Assad’s fall. One would be if Russia forces Assad to accept a political transition that ensures his departure from the presidency. But it is hard to imagine what incentive the U. S. could give Moscow to dump its ally.
Another scenario would be if the U. S. or other opposition backers reversed course and launched an allout military drive against Assad.
“That requires massive escalation, restarting the war from scratch to roll back Assad’s gains and creating an opposition that is both able to govern and acceptable to the international community,” said Aron Lund, a fellow with the New York- based think- tank The Century Foundation.
“Looking at the conflict right now and how the opposition’s allies are all backing away — it’s just not going to happen,” he said.
Trump ended a CIA- backed program training rebel forces trying to oust Assad. The U. S. has been more focused on fighting Islamic State in Syria, supporting Kurdish- led forces that have successfully rolled back the militants and took control of nearly a quarter of the country.