Lakes Erie, Ontario freezing fast
Ice coverage on Lake Erie is about two to three weeks ahead of where it would be normally, says a senior ice forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service.
With colder weather in the forecast, Jason Ross says the lake could be almost completely frozen over by the end of the month.
“Usually we would see that early to mid- February,” says Ross, adding when Lake Erie freezes over it’s usually between 95 to 98 per cent covered.
Right now, the lake is between 42 and 45 per cent ice- covered, mainly concentrated in the western basin where the water is shallower.
Comparing past records, he says the lake would normally be between eight and 10 per cent covered.
“There hasn’t been this much ice at this time of year,” Ross says.
Last year, the lake only reached 37 to 38 per cent ice coverage, but it was a warmer year.
The cold snap, he says, has helped with the growth of ice on not only Lake Erie, but all of the Great Lakes.
“Ice growth is directly proportional to the temperature. If the temperature is – 15 C, on average it would take a week to two weeks to go from a couple of centimetres thick to more than 15 centimetres. That’s more or less the conditions we’ve had.”
The colder the air is above the lakes, the more heat that is extracted from the water, and that also helps ice form faster. Calm weather also plays a role in ice formation.
Ross says strong winds can break up thin lake ice.
The cold spell the lakes are experiencing isn’t expected to end anytime soon.
Environment Canada issued a special weather statement Thursday. It says a bitterly cold northwesterly flow will develop over southern Ontario and an extreme cold warning criteria of – 30 C is expected to be met in many places today and into Saturday. That will end by Sunday as a southwesterly flow develops.
“It looks like next month will remain on the cold side of things … I don’t really see any indication of it warming up,” says Ross, adding longrange temperature forecasts are hard to make.
While the shallower western basin of Lake Erie is frozen, the deeper eastern basin — it covers Haldimand County and Niagara — is seeing ice buildup along the shoreline, more concentrated along the western New York side, the ice forecaster says.
In the north of Niagara, along the south shore of Lake Ontario, ice is also building along the shoreline.
“Lake Ontario is about 18 per cent covered. On average, the coverage is 23 per cent for the season. We already have more ice on the lake than the previous two years.”
Ross says the lake was eight to nine per cent covered in 2016 and five per cent covered in winter 2017. It reached 48 per cent in 2003.
Ice along the Lake Ontario shoreline, he says, would be thin. Areas the ice is thickest on the much deeper lake are the north shore in places such as Trenton, the Bay of Quinte and northeast end of the lake near Kingston, the St. Lawrence River and St. Lawrence Seaway system.
To figure out how much ice coverage there is on all of the Great Lakes, Ross says the Canadian Ice Service analysts and forecasters use satellite imagery. They look at the characteristics of the ice — shape, size of floes, concentration, how it looks — and use their knowledge and past experience to develop ice forecasts.
The information is shared on its website for anyone to use and it is shared with the Canadian Coast Guard and shipping industry as well.
“We deal directly with the Coast Guard and its icebreaking program. We do have employees embedded with the Coast Guard … acting as liaison officers.”
Ross says information comes back to the ice service from vessels on the Great Lakes, which are required to file ice reports.
“That helps us adjust things.”
The agency also shares information with its U. S. counterpart, the American Ice Service. Together, the two agencies work on the ice forecasts and charts released on the Great Lakes.
“Half the time we produce the charts, and half the time they do.”