Ontario’s political circle tour
Have Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives yet again clutched defeat from the jaws of victory?
A strong democracy needs a strong opposition. That means an opposition party with the depth of leadership and policy required to form a government if the electorate calls upon them.
The Ontario electorate deserves such a choice on June 7. For a time it looked like that might happen. But once again the Opposition Progressive Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot.
The PCs have come to similar junctures three times in the last 11 years.
In 2007, current Toronto Mayor John Tory, then leader of the PCs, advanced the unpopular idea of publicly funded faithbased schools. His misstep contributed directly to the Liberal win under Dalton McGuinty.
In 2011, PC leader Tim Hudak, who was leading in the polls, gained some seats but still lost to a tired, scandal- ridden McGuinty. In the last election, again leading in the polls, Hudak unwisely pledged to cut 100,000 civil service jobs. It helped Kathleen Wynne deliver an unexpected majority Liberal government.
A month ago it looked like the PCs had finally got their act together. Then- leader Patrick Brown had crafted a progressive campaign platform aimed at centrist Conservatives and right- leaning Liberals looking for change. The “People’s Guarantee” included a carbon tax to fight climate change and help fund a middle- class income tax cut, a reduction in hydro rates and investments in mental health.
The party had a solid lead in the polls. The Ontario electorate finally had a credible alternative to the long- in- the- tooth Liberals led by the unpopular Wynne. The table was set for victory.
But in late January when Brown was forced to resign in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations, his carefully crafted plan unravelled overnight.
The four leadership candidates immediately vowed to ditch the sensible carbon tax, while failing to offer credible revenue or cost- cutting alternatives to finance their agendas.
Brown, looking for vindication, blindsided the party by entering the leadership race at the last minute. Only a few hours earlier he’d been kicked out of the Tory caucus.
The other candidates claimed Brown’s entry would pull attention away from the focus on beating Wynne. It has. But it also highlights that none of them have a comprehensive platform to replace Brown’s “People’s Guarantee.”
Brown argues his platform is the party’s official policy position. The leadership rules call for all candidates to “support . . . the policy resolutions adopted at the constitutionally- mandated 2017 policy process.” But the other leadership candidates have ignored this requirement and the party executive has looked the other way.
Before his resignation,
Brown had managed to paper over the deep ideological splits in his party. Now they’re front and centre.
Tanya Granic Allen, the strident social conservative advocate, accuses Brown of “corrupting” the party. Self- professed populist Doug Ford says the party is better off without Brown.
Businessperson Caroline Mulroney seeks to return the Tories to their traditional conservative values. Former deputy leader Christine Elliott represents the moderate wing of the party. She says she’s “the experienced leader to unify the party” and is the current favourite.
Brown’s entry into the race with less than two weeks until the leadership voting starts changes the dynamics of the contest. His performance as former leader and the sexual misconduct and personal finance allegations against him will continue to dominate the brief race. So will his selfish need to settle scores.
Meanwhile, interim PC leader Vic Fedeli is vowing to “root out any rot” in the current membership list and party expenses that he says Brown left behind. Fedeli told the party executive Brown is “not fit to run.”
On Wednesday, despite this condemnation and fresh allegations from Tory MPP Randy Hillier about Brown’s “crooked politics,” the party’s vetting committee reluctantly approved Brown’s right to run for his old job. They had little choice. If they had blocked Brown’s entry, he would have appealed to the executive committee. Every step would have fuelled the media circus and allowed Brown to suck all the oxygen out of the race.
You’d think the electorate would conclude that a party that can’t govern itself isn’t fit to govern the province. Apparently not. A poll held over last weekend found 49 per cent of voters would support the Tories, and only 24 per cent the Liberals in the June election – a jump of seven percentage points since late January for the PCs.
The constant media attention, coupled with a baggage- burdened Liberal party and its unpopular leader, are fuelling this resurgence. Will it last? It will unless Wynne takes advantage of the Conservative chaos, finds an authentic voice that reconnects with voters and helps sell her record of accomplishments and future agenda. A tall order.
If the PCs want to clutch victory from the jaws of defeat, they have to quickly end their toxic, internal squabbling. They must select a leader who can do more than “rent” the most memberships. One who’s capable of pulling together a platform that appeals to both a divided party and Mainstreet Ontario. Another tall order.