Good news hides in latest round of Niagara job stats
RECENT UNEMPLOYMENT figures are exactly what some politicians are cracking them up to be, but there is some good news for Niagara in recently released labour force numbers, says the CEO of the Niagara Workforce planning board.
Mario De Divitis cautioned against getting too excited about the 5.2 per cent seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February, which is down from 5.9 per cent in January and December’s 6.7 per cent rate.
Factors such as seasonal retail employment and other Christmas season business can drive down an unemployment rate, which can climb as quickly as it fell.
“That’s why we always say what you need to look at is annual numbers, not the rolling figures month by month,” De Divitis said. “To understand what is happening in the economy, you have to take a longer look than just one month at a time.”
That said, if someone was looking for good news in the Statistics Canada labour data, it can be found under the numbers.
The recent data shows Niagara lost about 1,500 jobs between January and February, something that can be
partly attributed to the end of Christmas season and the steep decline in seasonal work for the period.
That might not sound positive on the surface but De Divitis said an annual rather than monthly focus tells a different story.
The decline in jobs from January 2017 to February 2018 was significantly larger, in the area of 4,100 jobs, which in turn was less than the year before.
So Niagara may still be bleeding economically, but the bleeding is slowing down.
“So we can say, at least, that Niagara is doing something right,” he said.
Still, there are continued warning signs in the data, he said. The participation rate in the economy — people who have a job or are actively looking for now — fell nearly one per cent between January and February.
De Divitis said it’s better news if that number is rising, but again said there is a silver lining. The participation rate fell less this year than the same time last year.
He also said even when looking at the data on an annual basis, the full story isn’t told.
For instance, he said, the Statistics Canada data for Niagara does not include Grimsby, West Lincoln and Lincoln, the three communities that are seeing the greatest economic growth in the region.
“They get included in the Hamilton data, which is something I am sure Hamilton likes,” he said. “But if that was included in Niagara, the numbers would change.”
De Divitis said the workforce planning board will provide a much more robust look at Niagara’s economy in April when it releases its annual local workforce report.