Can the Leafs afford to keep JVR?
BUFFALO — Under almost any other circumstances, there would be cause and reason for glowing reviews of James van Riemsdyk and his hat-trick performance in the Leafs’ win over Dallas Tuesday night.
Less than 24 hours afterwards, though, van Riemsdyk’s on-ice accomplishments are, once again, textured with discussion of his future with the Leafs.
The basic question comes down to simple math: can the Leafs keep van Riemsdyk from the free-agent market this summer by signing him to a multiyear extension.
The popular winger, who, in addition to his power-play excellence and team-leading stats, is like no other player in the organization. He represents the prototypical big winger, with strong net presence, and league leading tipping skills, that does not yet exist in a Leafs organizational roster that is otherwise quite deep.
Van Riemsdyk’s future — he is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent this July — enters a period most successful players anticipate with high expectations and careful considerations: he will conceivably sign the richest contract of his career.
Whether that’s with the Leafs — or elsewhere — the prospects of fulfilling what could be a van Riemsdyk contract in the neighbourhood of six to seven years in length, at between $6 million and $7 million, represent a task that is all but impossible for Toronto.
Those long odds stem from the eventuality that the club is facing: it is entering a period where it will conceivably sign its big three stars: Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner.
The math says if Toronto does sign the big three as expected, it leaves little room for another big-money, long-term contact.
Toronto’s salary cap projections for next season hold a large, grey area for now, given the contract futures of the big three. But the organization does have $39.05 million committed to 10 players for next season.
There are no indications and few comparables to lend a guideline as to what to expect for the big three. But in Matthews’ case, he is entering an off-season where he — and Tampa superstar Nikita Kucherov — will be in the similar positions, if they sign new deals, to join the highestpaid players in the game, if not break new ground for average annual value.
Where Matthews falls is guess work at the moment, but if there is a comparable — and many believe there is one — its Connor McDavid’s extension in July that gave him a league leading average annual value of $12.5 million over eight years.
Whatever the case may be, its conceivable the big three in Toronto could command upwards of $22 to $25 million collectively. That would leave about $18 million remaining cap space to sign 10 players.
Van Riemsdyk has been gracious in dealing with talk about trades and the fact he’s on a record goals pace while in a contract year.
The hat trick vaulted him to the team lead with 29 goals, and he’s also tied with Nazem Kadri, each with nine power-play goals.
The power play marks a key performance detail for van Riemsdyk: he leads the Leafs with 2:16 of power-play ice time per game, an important factor, given the lack of production from the club’s second unit.