Pipeline issue has turned into a national unity crisis

Don’t look now, but our pipeline crisis has turned into a national unity crisis.

Overreaction? Maybe. But consider this: Alberta and British Columbia have been at loggerheads over the expansion of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline. Alberta says it is in the national interest and needed in order to get its oil to international markets. The British Columbia government doesn’t want the pipeline, citing environmental concerns among other reasons.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau brought the two sides together to break the logjam. It didn’t work. Both sides retrenched, with Alberta now threatening legislation that would reduce or stop fuel exports to B.C. The Saskatchewan government has joined the fray and threatens similar legislation.

Trans Mountain has been approved by the National Energy Board. The law is clear that the federal government has final jurisdiction over energy projects deemed to be in the national interest. Trudeau and other heavy hitters have pledged the pipeline will be built, regardless of B.C.’s opposition.

Enter Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard, who has slammed the federal government for running roughshod over B.C.’s interests.

So, B.C. and Quebec on one side. Alberta and Saskatchewan on the other. The federal government in the middle, saying the right things, but so far appearing largely impotent in terms of moving the project forward.

In many ways, this isn’t even about the pipeline any more. There are arguments for and against, and they will continue regardless of the outcome. But this is now more about who has the final say, the ultimate authority, on contentious issues in this country. It should be Ottawa, but what does a federal government do when a province gives it the finger? This project has federal and NEB approval. Repeated legal challenges against it have failed.

B.C. Premier John Horgan doesn’t have a legal leg to stand on. But he also knows that his NDP is only in power thanks to a coalition with the Green Party, which is dead set against all pipelines, especially this one. If Horgan folds, he risks losing that support, and if the B.C. Liberals don’t step into the void, the NDP government will collapse.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley has her own problems. She trails conservative populist Jason Kenney in the polls with an election fast approaching. If she can’t win this in Alberta’s favour, her party’s future will be about as bleak as the Ontario Liberals.

And Justin Trudeau? He’s got the most to lose here. He wasn’t able to deliver on the Energy East project. If he can’t recover Trans Mountain, he will go into the next election as a prime minister who can’t deliver on major economic development projects that benefit the entire country.

He also risks being prime minister at a time when federal authority wasn’t just eroded, but washed away. Why would any other province take Ottawa’s leadership and authority seriously when there are no meaningful consequences for ignoring it? Why would any international business invest in a country where legally-approved projects can be derailed so easily? Canada’s credibility, as well as Trudeau’s, is on the line.

Trudeau has the most to lose. If he can’t recover Trans Mountain, he will go into the next election as a prime minister who can’t deliver on major economic development projects that benefit the entire country.