Childbirth metaphor on NAFTA: Contractions happening, due date TBD

WASHINGTON — Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland is using a vivid metaphor to describe the state of the NAFTA negotiations, as countries begin a multi-day push to deliver a deal. She likens it to childbirth. “When I was giving birth, one of my midwives said, ‘You never know how long the labour will be, but you know that each contraction is one contraction closer to the baby being born.’ And if I could use such a personal metaphor, that seems to apply to trade negotiations,’’ Freeland told reporters Tuesday.

“We are definitely making progress. I am not going to predict the day and the minute and the hour that we will be finished.’’

Her comment came at the start of an anticipated days-long effort to complete a trade agreement before negotiations go into hibernation during elections in Mexico and the U.S., possibly delaying the talks until 2019.

Freeland says the countries are sharing feedback gathered from auto-industry stakeholders over recent days. She arrived in Washington on Monday and met her Mexican counterpart to discuss Mexico’s latest suggestions for resolving a key sticking point of these talks: auto parts.

Mexico and the U.S. are sharply divided over an American plan that would credit companies for building cars in wealthier, highwage countries — in other words, outside Mexico. A Mexico-U.S. meeting to resolve those differences ran overtime on Monday, delaying Freeland’s first encounter with U.S. counterpart Robert Lighthizer until Tuesday morning. One big unknown is what happens after an agreement on autos and whether the U.S. will soften other demands in order to get a quick deal.

A Canadian union leader present says any talk of delivery remains premature. In the view of Jerry Dias, the NAFTA deal brought into this world 25 years ago was an abomination because it moved auto jobs to low-wage Mexico.

The Unifor president now blames Mexico for slow-walking efforts at wage reform. It has rejected a U.S. proposal that 40 per cent of every car comprise parts built by workers earning more than $16 an hour, with some possible credits for research and development spending.

Dias suggested that if this current Mexican government won’t agree to boost salaries, perhaps everyone should wait a few months until after the Mexican election and negotiate with the next president.

Left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador currently has a big lead in Mexico’s presidential polls.

Dias called low wages in Mexico the central issue of this negotiation — in his words the gorilla in the room. And he said Mexican negotiators seem more interested in keeping salaries low than in helping workers.

“You’ve got international American corporations ... masquerading as Mexican negotiators. Nobody’s moving on the key issues,’’ Dias said.

“Ultimately Canada and the United States at some time or another are gonna have to join forces and say to Mexico, ‘Here’s what the wages have to be in the auto industry, here’s what the rules have to be.’ And if Mexico flatly refuses then I suggest we should wait until after July 1, when there’s a new Mexican president,” Dias said.