Zero cases may be a statistical blip: Hirji
No cases part of positive trend, but caution still needed to avoid growth
It’s a statistic that people whose lives have been turned upside down by COVID-19 have been waiting for: zero new cases.
Niagara’s acting medical officer of health warns against reading too much into a single day’s data and worries it might lead to some to erroneously conclude the crisis has passed.
“I even hesitate to really call it good news. It does seem more like a statistical blip to me,” said Dr. Mustafa Hirji of Wednesday’s COVID-19 data, which show that for the first time since March 23, there were no new confirmed cases in Niagara. “What I can say is that it follows a longer trend of new cases coming in the single digits. So that is good news, but it certainly does not mean this is over.”
With no new cases on Wednesday, the total number of people in Niagara with COVID-19 remains at 634. Another group of people recovered from the virus, reducing the number of active cases to 53.
At least 59 people with the virus have died locally.
Hirj said the good news is that the flattening of Niagara’s COVID-19 curve — that is the rate of new infections — has flattened and has stayed that way for several weeks.
“In fact, if you look at the entire month, we have only had seven days with double digits,” he said.
However, Hirji remains con
cerned that given the warming weather and the general reduction of the infection rate, a wave of new cases may be just around the corner.
“It was just over a week ago that we had the Victoria Day long weekend and people were out socially more,” he said. “We could see a growth in cases as a result. If you look at the GTA, they have seen a rise in cases for that reason.”
Hirji said there is no reason to think that the spread of the virus will be impeded by the warm weather, pointing to those countries with much warmer weather than Canada, including Brazil and Saudi Arabia, where the growth rate of cases is rising dramatically.
“Look at Brazil, which is right on the equator. They have the highest number of cases (in the world) and it is growing. So clearly, warm weather is not going to get rid of COVID-19. Coronaviruses do not typically go away in warmer weather like influenza.”
It is why Hirji said Niagara residents have to resist the urge to gather in large groups or be lax about physical distancing, hand hygiene and wearing masks. Niagara has managed to flatten the COVID-19 infection rate because of widespread use of those infection control measures. To back off of them now, Hirji said, would be to court a return to the much higher infection rates of March and April.