Ontario has to get its COVID-19 testing plan right

Some time this week Ontario Premier Doug Ford is supposed to unveil a new COVID-19 testing strategy for Ontario. It’s about time. And it had better be a big improvement.

Aside from not having a handle on how the virus spread like wildfire through Ontario long-term-care homes, the government’s biggest failure to date is inadequate testing.

There is no clear, consistent, answer on why this is so. Across Canada and around the world, jurisdictions that have successfully implemented widespread testing have had the most success at controlling the spread of the virus. In this country, British Columbia and Alberta are among the most successful testing regimes, and look at where they are in terms of pandemic recovery compared to Ontario.

But even armed with that irrefutable data, Ontario hasn’t been able to grow testing adequately. Yes, it appears to be improving now, in fact one day this week we came very close to the daily maximum capacity of 16,000. But that has been more the exception than the rule. On far too many days testing has fallen far short of capacity and targets.

That failure has left us in a dangerous position. It meant that Ford ended up restarting the economy without an adequate understanding of how the pandemic is growing in Ontario, because we haven’t done enough testing to make that determination.

The government has done this backwards. We should have had a new and comprehensive testing regime in place before we started reopening. Given that daily reported new cases (not the most important metric, granted) again appear to be dropping, we may have avoided the fallout from that poor public policy planning. Then again, reopening is only a week old, and we could still see another spike given COVID-19’s incubation period.

No doubt the “why” of this failure will come up significantly in the government’s “independent” inquiry into the LTC fiasco, but whether it will ever get properly aired in public is anyone’s guess since the government will control all the information.

Back to the government’s new and improved testing regime. In part, Ford says, it will test more people, including at work, and those who may have the virus but aren’t displaying symptoms.

Can we feel confident that the government will get it right this time? Let’s hope so, but there is reason to worry. Remember, Ford has been the loudest voice complaining about inadequate testing for weeks. He called it “absolutely unacceptable” and “frustrating” and “disappointing.” He has done what he does best — been angry, offended, emotional and fed up — but what he has not been able to do is change it consistently and for the better.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of Ontario, and Quebec, too, (the two provinces where the virus has hit hardest) getting their testing plans in order and quickly. There is now almost no doubt that we are months, perhaps years, away from being done with COVID-19. The World Health Organization is warning that the pandemic overall hasn’t even peaked yet. Most experts are predicting a second round, at least, this fall.

In part, that bleak prognosis is why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed this week to provide federal help to provinces who need assistance establishing or re-enforcing testing strategies and execution. All provinces, especially Ontario, should accept that offer.

When the next wave hits, adequate testing will be the most important tool to identify, control and fight the spread of COVID-19. No patchwork quilt of testing protocols that don’t line up. A unified, national plan, for a national crisis.