Les Leyne: Advance-vote jump hints at the future

Afew elections from now, the concept of Voting Day will fade away. It will be “Voting Week.” Apart from that small matter of who wins tonight, the 2017 contest will be remembered for the remarkable surge in the advance poll turnout.

Elections B.C. closed the sixth day of advance voting on Saturday (up from four during the 2013 campaign) with a tally of 614,389. That number has been climbing by between six and 20 per cent increments over the past four elections. The figure this year is 62 per cent higher than last time. The actual number of people who voted in advance polls was 290,000 in 2009, and 381,000 in 2013. The chart showing the increase looks like an ascending slope that turns into Mount Everest toward the end.

This year’s advance numbers mean that 34 per cent of the total turnout last time will have already voted by the time the polls open this morning. So statistically, there are fewer and fewer voters whom the candidates need to reach as the campaign progresses. The advance voters have already done their bit, and moved on to other things.

If the trend continues, eventually the majority of voters will have voted by the last week of the campaign, which makes you wonder about the point of going the full 28 days. In these days of instant, non-stop communication, should it really take a full month to decide this thing?

The campaign was shortened by a week in 1983, and federal campaigns where shortened in that era as well, although prime ministers have the leeway to go longer. Former prime minister Stephen Harper’s decision to opt for a record-breaking 11-week campaign in 2015 left people shaking their heads.

Harry Neufeld, a former B.C. chief electoral officer who consults around the world on electoral processes, said the Canadian process is “long overdue for an overhaul.”

The mechanics of the system were put in place in the 1800s, and although there have been refinements, they haven’t changed much since.

“It’s not very modern to tell voters to go to a specific place on a specific day between certain hours if they want to cast ballots,” he said. “We should let them vote anywhere.”

Rather than confine people to polling places in their own ridings, the system could have fewer polling places open much longer, and open to anyone, regardless of which riding they live in.

But even adding that convenience doesn’t have much impact on increasing turnout. Elections Canada did a study that found more advance polls had a negligible impact. It’s more convenient for committed voters, but it doesn’t increase their numbers much. A big driver for increased early voting is contact with parties, who like to herd their vote home as soon as possible.

Neufeld doesn’t see any move toward online voting. People could vote with their TV remotes right now, but security concerns about the integrity of the process make that a distant possibility.

“People are very, very apprehensive about that idea,” said Neufeld. “If there’s enough at stake, or enough money involved, somebody is going to hack it.”

The fear is that a voter could mark their preference and the vote could be changed “and no one would know that it happened.”

Current B.C. chief electoral officer Keith Archer was to have released a modernization report last fall, but the office decided to wait until after the election.

Cost is always a factor, but Neufeld said New Brunswick has done a major modernization and found that the increased technology costs are offset by staff savings.

Elections B.C. has a budget of more than $36 million to run this election. It’s up 18 per cent over the last one because there are two more ridings, two more advance-voting days, more computers in polling places and a 27 per cent increase in postal costs.

Just So You Know: If advance voting over multiple days becomes the norm, as the trend suggests, it’s actually a return to the good old days. In the first two federal elections in 1867 and 1872, voting lasted for several weeks.

It wasn’t until the mid-1870s that secret ballots and one uniform voting day were made law.