South Korea hands Trump a challenge
U.S. President Donald Trump is confronting an unexpected obstacle to his self-proclaimed role as the only American leader prepared to move decisively to confront challenges facing the United States, especially the threat posed by North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons.
Trump has to deal with the unexpected election of a new leader in South Korea, President Moon Jae-un, a respected left-of-centre politician who states he wants to ease the tense relations with North Korea, including the current alarm caused by North Korea’s missile tests.
While many Canadians might regard the sporadic confrontations between the divided Koreas as primarily an issue between them, that view has been overtaken by new realities. In fact, Canadian governments, including the current Trudeau government, regard trade and economic relations with East Asian nations, including South Korea, as top priorities.
Anything that potentially threatens the stability of the East Asian region could have important consequences for other trading nations, including Canada.
Growing tension caused by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and development of long-range missiles some day capable of carrying nuclear warheads as far as the U.S. and Canada has worsened significantly due to increased tests carried out by Pyongyang despite UN sanctions and demands by Washington that such tests must stop.
Trump’s repeated threats to take direct measures against North Korea if the tests continue have added to the already escalating tension with Pyongyang.
Those familiar with the neverending crisis involving the divided Koreas are well aware that finding a way to end tension there must confront some fundamental problems with no easy solutions unless the two Koreas, as well as the U.S., Japan, China and others, find an acceptable solution that so far has eluded everyone.
One obvious obstacle is that North Korea is not a democracy. It’s controlled by a family-based dictatorship, currently represented by 34-year-old Kim Jong-un. Because of his lack of experience and longstanding loyal power base, he has carried out a massive purge of the country’s inner circle and military, with hundreds executed.
Clearly, Kim has no intention in giving up his country’s nuclear weapons, as they have helped his hold on power and are his key bargaining chip in relations with other countries, especially the U.S. and South Korea.
The threat posed by North Korea’s large military forces close to the border with South Korea, and the military’s ability to bomb the nearby South Korean capital of Seoul ,have been effective tools in convincing some past South Korean governments to provide economic and agricultural assistance to Pyongyang.
Although Moon says he wants to return to a more realistic and open relationship with Pyongyang, he has to bear in mind the current UN sanctions, as well as the unpredictable response of Trump, who has been flexing his military muscles in Syria and Afghanistan.
(Pyongyang media recently claimed a U.S. attempt to poison Kim had been thwarted.)
While Trump might be tempted to consider some kind of surgical strike against North Korea’s nuclear facilities, he could unleash a North Korean counter-attack against nearby Seoul with devastating destruction and countless deaths.
However, for now, Trump says he’s prepared to see whether China’s President Xi Jinping can use his influence with North Korea to reopen stalled negotiations.
One solution might be some kind of non-aggression commitment offered by the U.S. and other countries, accompanied by economic assistance.
However, since Kim considers his possession of nuclear weapons a key element that ensures his continued power, his adversaries, including China’s Xi, obviously confront a challenge in reaching an agreement.
The escalating tension caused by North Korea’s nuclear threat could be a timely test of Trump’s skills at finding the way to reach a mutually acceptable agreement with one’s adversaries.