Active hurricane season forecast for Atlantic Canada, U.S. coast

HALIFAX — Warm water temperatures and a weak or non-existent El Niño will contribute to an above-normal hurricane season this year, the Canadian Hurricane Centre said Thursday.

Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist at the Halifax-based centre, said figures released by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 11 to 17 named storms, with five to nine expected to become hurricanes and two to four expected to become major in force.

Robichaud said an average of 35 to 40 per cent of storms that form in the Atlantic Basin actually make it into the centre’s Canadian response zone, meaning anywhere from four to six storms could affect Canada this year.

But Robichaud stressed: “It only takes that one storm to make it a bad year, regardless of the number of storms.”

That means Atlantic Canadians should always prepare for the worst by having an emergency kit ready and creating a family plan, Robichaud said.

One factor contributing to the active hurricane season is above-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic in the last six weeks, said Robichaud.

He said there is a chance of El Niño conditions this year, but it’s uncertain whether those conditions will be reached by peak hurricane season during August, September and October.

A strong El Niño — the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean — can suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Hurricane seasons tend to be quieter in years with a strong El Niño and more active in years with La Niña conditions — like in 2016.

“The key thing here is the uncertainty in the El Niño,” said Robichaud.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 until the end of November, and there has already been one named storm this year.

A rare April tropical storm named Arlene formed over open ocean, but was no threat to land. The next tropical storm will be named Bret.