Cruel dilemma for new alliance
The heir presumptive to the premier’s office, NDP Leader John Horgan, says he will ask the B.C. Utilities Commission to conduct an assessment of B.C. Hydro’s Site C dam. That would effectively put the project on hold. In the meantime, Horgan has written to the company’s CEO, Jessica McDonald, asking her to delay awarding any new contracts until the review is complete. He also urged McDonald to defer the planned expropriation of several homes in the area.
This might well be the most hazardous issue Horgan’s administration will face during its first year in office. There is no pain-free choice.
On one hand, the NDP can govern only with Green Party support. But Andrew Weaver, leader of the B.C. Greens, has made clear his unqualified opposition to the dam.
In addition, many NDP supporters have deep reservations about the project. They question its impact on the environment of the Peace River Valley, and they have doubts about the need for additional generating capacity.
Allowing the project to go forward, in other words, will not only infuriate the NDP’s environmentalist wing, it will strain the recently formed alliance with the Greens.
In a similar manner, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has taken heat from conservationists for backing expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline between Edmonton and Vancouver. Opponents of the pipeline see this as a betrayal by a government they believed was sympathetic to their viewpoint. Horgan and Weaver will face the same kind of backlash among their supporters if the go-ahead is given to Site C.
On the other hand, there are significant financial and economic costs involved in killing the project. Company officials say $1.75 billion has already been spent, among other things on earthworks and the purchase of turbines.
A further $4 billion has been committed, in the form of signed contracts, and community and First Nations agreements. That’s more than half the total value of the project, estimated at $9 billion.
There would also be remediation costs if an order were given to abandon the operation. No figure is available yet for such work, but it would likely run into the hundreds of millions.
In short, the financial consequences of a stop order are enormous. If the project is delayed one year, McDonald has said the price tag would be $630 million. If it were abandoned entirely, the better part of $6 billion would have to be written off.
The economic costs are equally daunting. More than 2,200 jobs are on the line, in a region already facing significant economic challenges.
The largest union at the site, the Christian Labour Association of Canada, has written to both Horgan and Weaver urging that the project continue. The union points out that its members have made significant household decisions based on the assurance of long-term work.
These political ramifications might explain, in part, the decision to get the utilities commission involved. That certainly buys time. It might also afford a degree of cover, particularly if the commission recommends letting the project carry on.
But ultimately, the decision will end up on Horgan’s desk. For a government so new to office, it is bound to be a rending choice.
And Weaver, too, will face a test. This is his party’s first taste of power, albeit in a supporting role.
Can he afford to back a project that is anathema to the movement he helped build? Assuming another provincial election might be only 12 or 18 months away, what happens to the Green vote if Weaver fails to take a stand on such a central issue?
Either way, this is a cruel dilemma for a fledgling alliance to confront right out of the gate.