Climate change roasts the coffee industry

Fall is always a good time to create new habits, including coffee consumption. And coffee chains are always looking for ways to get you to drink their java. But the coffee industry faces big changes.

For restaurant operators, there’s no better hook than coffee to get repeat business. Most recently, many chains used International Coffee Day on Oct. 1 as an excuse to offer coffee at a discount or for free.

But offering free coffee might soon not be an option for businesses, as a result of several factors.

Coffee demand around the world is shifting. Europe still accounts for almost one-third of the coffee consumed worldwide. And more than 90 per cent of adult Canadians drink coffee. But China has doubled its consumption in just the past five years.

In addition, several recent studies suggest coffee is a healthy choice, ramping up consumption further.

So as demand grows, more pressure is put on coffee-producing countries.

Coffee is the most traded commodity in the world after oil. It’s grown in more than 60 countries and provides a living for 25 million families. Brazil is by far the largest producer, followed by Vietnam and Colombia.

And 2017 could be a record year: World production is expected to exceed 153 million 60-kg bags of coffee, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Coffee futures are down as a result, but we are far from seeing a bumper crop. Production has been shifting.

With good rainfalls in Brazil and favourable weather patterns in other countries, nature has so far spared coffee growers. But their luck could be running out.

Despite not being a staple in any diet, coffee is big business. The sector is worth more than $100 billion US at the farmgate and about $10 billion US to the retail sector.

But there’s growing expert consensus that climate change will severely affect coffee crops within the next 80 years. By 2100, more than 50 per cent of the land used to grow coffee will no longer be arable. Higher temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns will make the land where coffee now grows unsuitable for its production.

According to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, in Latin America alone more than 90 per cent of the land used for coffee production could suffer this fate. It’s estimated that Ethiopia, the sixth largest coffee producer in the world, could lose more than 60 per cent of its production by 2050. That’s only a generation away.

As climate conditions become critical and production falls, the livelihoods of millions of farmers will be put at risk.

The circumstances could be exacerbated by other factors, such as pests and diseases. With climate change, pest management and disease control become serious issues for farmers who can’t afford to protect their crops. More than 80 per cent of coffee growers are peasant farmers.

Higher temperatures will also affect the quality of coffee. Higherquality coffee is grown in regions where the climate allows the beans to ripen at just the right time. Arabica coffee (75 per cent of the world’s production), for example, is always just a few degrees away from becoming sub-par. This will undoubtedly affect coffee prices and quality for us all.

Coffee futures are valued at $1.28 per pound, but the record price of $3.39 per pound, set in 1977, could return in just a few years.

The retail coffee wars we’re experiencing aren’t just about gaining market share and hooking consumers on java. They’re also about how we connect with a crop that’s under siege from climate change.

If we don’t curtail climate change, we could be forced to alter our relationship with coffee.

As producing countries seek ecofriendly methods and embrace sustainable practices, Canada could be the next country where coffee is grown, not just roasted. Within a decade, with climate change and new technologies, producing coffee beans could be feasible here. If Elon Musk thinks we can start colonizing Mars by 2022, why can’t we grow coffee in Canada?

So if a coffee chain offers you free coffee, take it. Coffee could soon enough be a luxury (OK, you’ll probably still find free coffee, but not the good stuff you get now).