Maritimes softwood slips on climate change: study

HALIFAX — A new federal study says climate change in the Maritimes may lead to a gradual reduction in the growth of softwood trees, which are crucial to the region’s pulp industry.

Using computer models, the Natural Resources Canada study marks the first region-wide assessment of the composition and growth of the Acadian Forest to the end of this century.

The forest is carefully watched in forestry circles, as it is a unique mix of temperate forests, with warmer weather trees like red maples, and boreal forests that include fir and spruce.

Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions continue at “business as usual” levels, the study said the woodlands will experience an average temperature rise of 7 C by the end of the 21st century.

As a result, in the latter half of the century trees like red spruce will decline in abundance between 10 to 20 per cent when compared with 2011, while the hardwoods that prefer warmer climates will increase.

The study’s author, scientist Anthony Taylor, said there are still some uncertainties about the model because some factors are still being studied. Still, he said, the model presents some causes for concern for the forestry industry.

“It’s suggesting by the end of the century those particular species that the industry relies heavily on will not be performing as well as they are today,” he said.

His paper suggests several methods of adapting forestry practices, such as planting species of softwood that are proven to be more resilient in warm climates.

The paper also said the industry could start thinning forests to allow temperate species to grow more quickly, rather than to promote softwoods that will struggle in the warmer weather.

The study, published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, predicts there will be an overall decline in the size of the Acadian forest because the increase in hardwoods such as red maples won’t make up for the lost softwoods. The paper said there are currently 32 species in the region, with about half of them being boreal species such as spruce, pine and fir.

The forestry industry is a major part of New Brunswick’s economy, estimated to be close to five per cent of its gross domestic product, with softwood the majority.