Site C power a certainty; other sources a guess

Re: “Why B.C. needs a public inquiry on the Site C dam,” comment, Nov. 8.

Site C opponents often cherry-pick information to create headlines. The B.C. Utilities Commission based its findings on two consultant reports based on modelling techniques.

Models only indicate possibilities into the future and not certainties, and the further you try to predict, the less the accuracy and the greater the risk.

The first consultant’s report indicates that B.C. Hydro’s cost and schedule estimate (including contingency) is accurate if the river diversion milestone of 2019 is met, and project management is better with increased co-operation of the contractors. If the river diversion milestone is missed, the costs will indeed increase.

The second report on alternatives is an eye-opener.

From 2018 to 2036, the hydro component decreases from 91 per cent to 76 per cent. From 2018 to 2027 the increase in supply capacity is provided almost exclusively by add-on hydro projects.

From 2027 onward, the capacity is provided by geothermal, biogas, biomass and natural-gas generation. Relatively, solar and wind are negligible contributors.

Model assumptions also include a much lower demand, which is a risk. Hydro capacity is a known certainty. The certainty of geothermal, biogas and biomass capacity two decades out is a guess.

Robin Allen Victoria