Farewell to Nova Scotia’s sea-bound coast?

Province is at risk of becoming an island due to rising ocean level, municipal leaders say

AMHERST, N. S. — Nova Scotia is at risk of becoming an island within decades if action is not taken to fix the 275-year-old dikes that prevent flooding of the isthmus connecting the province to the rest of Canada, officials warn.

Mayor David Kogon of Amherst, N.S., said sea levels are projected to rise in the Bay of Fundy over 15 to 20 years to the point where the Isthmus of Chignecto will flood, even without a storm surge.

The isthmus is a narrow, lowlying strip of land that is about 20 kilometres at its narrowest point.

“If the Isthmus of Chignecto, which is all that connects Nova Scotia to New Brunswick, is flooded out, then Nova Scotia will be surrounded by water,” Kogon said in an interview Thursday, adding that with the right storm the isthmus could flood sooner.

“If the highway and rail line are under water, you’ve completely cut Nova Scotia off from the rest of mainland Canada.”

The dikes in the Tantramar Marsh were built by Acadian settlers for agricultural purposes in the 1700s and urgent, multimillion-dollar upgrades are needed, Kogon said.

He said an estimated $50 million in trade flows through the isthmus daily via road and rail, and the Trans-Canada Highway and rail line are at risk.

“Goods coming from Europe to Canada are all coming through the Port of Halifax. … Goods leaving Canada to go in that direction are going through the Port of Halifax. That would all be severed instantly,” said Kogon, whose town is roughly six kilometres from the New Brunswick border.

Kogon, the warden of Nova Scotia’s Cumberland County, and the mayor of Sackville, N.B., have sent a letter to provincial and federal infrastructure ministers requesting a meeting to discuss the issue.

“The aging dikes combined with documented rising water levels and increased frequencies and intensity of weather events has led to new floodplain mapping. These clearly show that a flood that will breach the national rail and road networks is no longer a theoretical question — it is a matter of how soon it will occur,” said the Nov. 1 letter, signed by Kogon, Cumberland County Warden Al Gillis and Sackville Mayor John Higham.

The Isthmus of Chignecto was cut off for several days in an 1869 storm, according to a 2008 study by Memorial University geologist Norm Catto.

The study said the odds of a recurrence would increase as sea levels rise.

Catto also said that while no Nova Scotia community would be permanently submerged by rising sea levels, many would need to adapt.

A 2016 report by Ottawa’s Working Group on Adaptation and Climate Resilience noted that along with the highway and rail lines, electrical-transmission lines on the isthmus are also at risk.

“Disruptions due to climate change (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surge) pose risks to these infrastructures and the economic activity they sustain. Trade flows through the isthmus, both by road and rail, carry an estimated value of $50 million per day and $20 billion annually,” it said.

Kogon said he was told during a meeting with federal politicians that fixing the dikes would fall under provincial jurisdiction, but he wants all three levels of government to work together.

He said the first step would be an engineering study to determine the scope of the required repairs.

He said the three municipal leaders have not yet received a reply to the letter, but they are meeting again today and plan on following up with the minister’s offices