Winter forecast: Colder than normal, warmer than last year
Vancouver Islanders concerned about being pounded with snow and bitter cold worse than last year can relax, says Environment Canada meteorologist Matt MacDonald.
MacDonald said this winter is predicted to be a weak La Niña, bringing colder-than-normal temperatures but not likely as frigid as last year, which was a strong La Niña.
“Last year was very exceptional, so chances of seeing that again are very low.”
Last winter was recordbreaking in many regards. “It was one of the top 10 coldest winters we have on record, with records going back to the early 1900s and it was also very snowy,” MacDonald said.
Some organizations have predicted an unusually cold and snow-filled season ahead.
“To go out and tell people this is going to be the snowiest winter on record, you are pretty much lying,” said MacDonald. “You are pretending we have that skill in the extended forecast when we absolutely don’t … especially when it comes to precipitation.”
Environment Canada gets temperature forecasts right about 60 to 70 per cent of the time.
“We do better than flipping a coin,” said MacDonald. “But when it comes to precipitation, anything beyond a one- to twoweek period is a total crap shoot.
“People like to paint these scary pictures of what’s coming and the idea that we can tell you what’s going to happen March 13 is absolutely ridiculous.”
Seasonal forecasts predict average weather over the threemonth winter period defined as December, January and February.
But averages don’t provide the information that everyone wants to know, which is day-today weather, MacDonald said.
It could be –10 C today with 50 centimetres of snow and it could be 10 C the next day and raining, but the average temperature from that is 0 C, explained MacDonald.
Meteorologists look to the ocean to see how temperatures are behaving.
When ocean waters are warmer than normal, we get into El Niño territory, and when they are significantly colder than normal, it’s La Niña.
Despite this being a La Niña year, it might not be that much colder, said MacDonald. When daily highs and lows are averaged out, it could turn out to be just one or half a degree colder than the average, said MacDonald.