Chilly temperatures, snow in the forecast for today, Thursday

About five centimetres of snow were expected to fall on the Malahat Monday night, to be followed this week by more winter-like conditions.

“Get those down jackets out and replenish the firewood stocks,” advised Environment Canada meteorologist Matt MacDonald.

Another blast of winter weather is expected this afternoon as a storm sitting off the Island’s west coast tracks toward the northern part of Washington state.

“The storm’s going to track along the international border there and it’s going to be sucking cold air out of the Interior. We’ll see the temperatures gradually decrease as the rain intensifies, so by Tuesday afternoon we’ll probably see that rain start to become mixed with snow,” MacDonald said.

Another five centimetres of wet snow could fall over higher elevations like the Malahat in the evening, he said.

The snow will taper off about midnight and there will be a bit of a reprieve as sun shines Wednesday. But another snowfall is expected Thursday, MacDonald said.

“We get a nice break on Wednesday. We see the sun come out so it will be a nice crisp, clear day and then we’re looking at the arrival of some arctic air on Thursday.

“Any time arctic air spills out from the Interior and over to Vancouver Island, we see the potential for what we call straiteffect snow,” he said.

“This colder air comes screaming across the Strait of Georgia, picks up humidity and generates flurries and sometimes snow squalls.”

MacDonald said it’s difficult to predict either how much snow will fall or to pinpoint exact locations where snow will fall Thursday, as those are more matters of proximity to the ocean than elevation, he said.

“These snow streamers, as we call them, are very intense bands of intense flurries. If you happen to find yourself underneath one of these things, it can easily mean five to 10 centimetres in just a few hours.

“But if you’re adjacent to one of these on the side, you might only see a few light flakes.”

The east side of Vancouver Island from Campbell River to Nanaimo, and possibly into Victoria, is most likely to see the snow.

“Victoria is a little less prone to straight-effect snow. It’s typically really the true east side of the Island so from Nanaimo northwards, but the potential is definitely there for Victoria to see, probably, some lighter snow. Typically in this type of scenario, it’s like Comox to Nanaimo that gets heavily hit,” he said.

Once the arctic air arrives, it looks like it’s going to stick around, he said.

“It’s going to be beautiful. It will be sunny but crisp. Friday we’re only heading for a high of plus 3 and the overnight low will be closer to minus 5 and that’s about 7 degrees below normal for this time of year,” MacDonald said.

“So any snow that does fall will likely hang around because we’re going to be in these cold temperatures right through Christmas and probably through the new year.”

Historically, Victoria has about a 15 per cent chance of experiencing a white Christmas, the lowest in the country next to Vancouver.

“This year I think that’s a pretty fair bet given the weather forecast going forward, particularly for metro Victoria. I think for east Vancouver Island and any areas inland … those people have a way better chance of seeing snow. But for the city of Victoria and the lowlying communities, I might bump that up to 20 or 25 per cent chance for a white Christmas this year,” MacDonald said.